Golf · resolved market

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab35666e3763b5ccd228de045cb11a18a8d0e3a29944157ccee3730bd5311734

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,369 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe401…7b88backed Yes	11c	1,113$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.01	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes	12c	537.47$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.37	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Yes	21c	298.54$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.69	68	7.4%5 W · 63 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5542…01cebacked No	79c	258$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.18	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf1…ac4ebacked Yes	23c	213.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No	79c	202.56$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.54	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	62cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e33…5825backed No	76c	158.3$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.99	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes	15c	120$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	172	26.7%46 W · 126 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b15…f827backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec74…023dbacked Yes	16c	92.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5830…d9e7backed Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37fa…1136backed Yes	21c	83.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	80c	17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.4	225	46.7%105 W · 120 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event