TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Golf · resolved market

Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,711 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Golf
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1e6…1dc1backed No48c12,498$6,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,493.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes64c11,500$7,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,377.751758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes52c9,333$4,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,821.662729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No22c8,645$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,715.323525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Yes79c4,306$3,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,380.922263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked No39c3,690$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,243.564928.6%14 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No71c2,679$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.225341.5%22 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No43c2,396$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.645044%22 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…d35fbacked Yes68c2,297$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fcb…08fbbacked No58c1,733$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed No51c1,694$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes13c1,453$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.557031.4%22 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5661…5921backed No41c1,334$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.62549.3%5 W · 49 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-76.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No46c1,315$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.657062.9%44 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes53c1,315$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.71947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No50c1,270$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.863411.8%4 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-80.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x498b…52f6backed Yes52c957.85$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+91.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed Yes61c929.99$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.95565.5%36 W · 19 L+10.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+123.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3bc7…3210backed Yes50c922.61$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…9811backed Yes54c749.5$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.378118.5%15 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbde…a758backed Yes49c720$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…71e4backed Yes59c589.09$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked No51c585.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes43c517.24$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4822546.7%105 W · 120 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No22c512$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.762755.6%15 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed No41c486.91$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.223360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff75…b615backed Yes46c410.38$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.991216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…99dcbacked Yes67c394.94$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed No45c352.17$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.993729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes33c330.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.794436.4%16 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc30f…b556backed Yes68c310.89$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No55c305.17$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.442343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…625abacked Yes63c288.55$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes45c275.33$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed No49c250$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed No64c247.54$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.41650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes6c232.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13810.5%4 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes47c216.34$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9870%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes19c214.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.061010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed17…ad0bbacked Yes39c203.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd839…8fc8backed No63c196$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+109.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe046…5ea7backed Yes28c179.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x597a…5df0backed Yes23c171.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.041822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed No33c170.39$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.12454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked No44c164.76$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.532669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No28c164.75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.04922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f7…c354backed Yes32c161.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b2…0b43backed No64c155.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37fa…1136backed No72c150.21$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e4…c35ebacked No61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c114.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.084932.7%16 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes15c110$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.13740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77ee…cbe9backed Yes45c103.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69a6…4b30backed No48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Yes47c89.66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No47c80.95$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.731580%12 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+43.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9868…2767backed Yes20c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No54c63.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.126958%40 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No54c62.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.874065%26 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed No48c61.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1917226.7%46 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No49c60.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d72…c1eebacked No47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No60c54.29$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes25c51.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.711040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b7…be96backed No48c51.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc760…d1f2backed Yes40c50.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No55c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.754955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf35b…8043backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d6e…0681backed Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x010b…81dcbacked Yes45c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64aa…6112backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes33c43.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf602…c172backed Yes39c43.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f34…94d0backed Yes44c40.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccc2…9d94backed No52c39.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.76650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No69c38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.78850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Yes49c37.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.433611.1%4 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fc…8865backed No48c36.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7968…88f9backed Yes52c36.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689d…b768backed No55c36.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.35520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x959b…64edbacked Yes56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc687…7ddabacked No48c34.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf476…0af3backed Yes52c34.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cea…1ddcbacked Yes52c33.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9676…8349backed Yes74c33.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb527…706dbacked No59c32.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c52…ba47backed No48c32.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef96…dad9backed Yes52c32.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf590…b1dcbacked Yes40c30.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-70.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aef…2468backed No48c29.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x593c…82d4backed No48c28.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a2…73ebbacked Yes52c28.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa610…9d31backed No50c27.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f0e5backed Yes48c27.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f6…e3c2backed Yes52c27.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8122…7febbacked Yes52c26.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.110850%54 W · 54 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32b1…c3bdbacked No48c23.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No59c21.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.