TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof New York Mets, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$235,443
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$247,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,443 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce2e…1519backed New York Mets53c35,000$18,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,549.981070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked San Francisco Giants47c26,587$12,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,091.357755.8%43 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed New York Mets0c18,801$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked San Francisco Giants63c11,844$7,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.6821656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked San Francisco Giants47c11,085$5,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,875.291,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed San Francisco Giants47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,299.9847953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed San Francisco Giants47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,299.9713349.6%66 W · 67 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked San Francisco Giants54c9,338$5,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,282.091,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets52c8,648$4,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,525.675,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0f…d41cbacked New York Mets51c8,381$4,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,289.213855.3%21 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked New York Mets53c5,930$3,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,142.21,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…8b6dbacked New York Mets4c5,356$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.1150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65022047.7%105 W · 115 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x995e…13aebacked New York Mets42c4,865$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.482729.6%8 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-45%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed New York Mets53c4,796$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.7536649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants69c4,650$3,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.062,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5318…1118backed New York Mets53c4,401$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.326752.2%35 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed San Francisco Giants48c4,333$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,253.351,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants64c3,951$2,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.99,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked New York Mets24c3,436$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.2394034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked New York Mets53c3,347$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.8538148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed New York Mets35c2,983$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.821747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed San Francisco Giants46c2,724$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.9860451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed New York Mets53c2,374$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.2813254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Mets45c2,331$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.672,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants48c2,228$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.682,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked New York Mets53c2,113$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.8212247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed New York Mets53c2,072$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.116547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Mets6c1,919$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.71,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed San Francisco Giants47c1,900$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.9927351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked New York Mets53c1,834$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.82638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets18c1,832$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.268,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714d…6e05backed New York Mets53c1,800$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.976437.5%24 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked New York Mets52c1,295$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.314454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b6…672abacked San Francisco Giants43c1,123$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.123935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed San Francisco Giants52c1,107$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.281,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked San Francisco Giants71c1,081$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.3834164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed San Francisco Giants45c1,075$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.2529948.8%146 W · 153 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed New York Mets31c1,071$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.114648.6%71 W · 75 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed San Francisco Giants48c1,070$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.9239351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed San Francisco Giants47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5306440.6%26 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked New York Mets53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53011125.2%28 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed San Francisco Giants47c999.99$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.9922142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked New York Mets31c994.51$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.959219.6%18 W · 74 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed New York Mets21c952.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0511040.9%45 W · 65 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x223a…286fbacked New York Mets53c916.79$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed San Francisco Giants52c877.21$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.321,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants48c861.57$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.955,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacad…bceabacked New York Mets58c848.61$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.421947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed New York Mets2c797.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1540629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed San Francisco Giants46c779.08$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.737634.2%26 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New York Mets17c750.39$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.946,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets51c712.19$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.2212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed San Francisco Giants40c700$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42070735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed New York Mets14c677.43$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8494648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked New York Mets14c652.07$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2918345.4%83 W · 100 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked New York Mets16c593.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9618239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked New York Mets54c583.32$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.0541152.3%215 W · 196 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked New York Mets54c540.22$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.7222546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed San Francisco Giants47c515$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.9540348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed New York Mets40c482.51$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.61,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb7f…824bbacked New York Mets52c480.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.996764.2%43 W · 24 L+10.6wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed New York Mets40c479.39$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5214039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked New York Mets53c426.61$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.150751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed New York Mets53c407.18$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.8112154.5%66 W · 55 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets53c400$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.116,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked New York Mets53c388.72$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0227552.4%144 W · 131 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed New York Mets53c370.26$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.281,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed New York Mets53c359.57$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5712257.4%70 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed San Francisco Giants43c348.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8439948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed San Francisco Giants42c344.58$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.857051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9244…3d46backed New York Mets62c342.02$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked New York Mets14c313.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8737747.2%178 W · 199 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed New York Mets44c303.27$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4478146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Mets5c301.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.371,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5e…81ffbacked New York Mets16c297.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.481154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+64.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked San Francisco Giants48c295.24$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.5360350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed San Francisco Giants47c290.46$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9459150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked New York Mets34c288.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9622831.6%72 W · 156 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0f…3c8ebacked New York Mets17c276.43$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.81825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa3…7e2ebacked New York Mets42c271.57$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.061338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb03c…b352backed New York Mets54c270.11$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.863935.9%14 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0115…ca23backed San Francisco Giants47c265.66$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.81833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked New York Mets31c263.74$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6960941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7704…9640backed New York Mets53c252.69$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.922263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed San Francisco Giants61c244.1$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9865651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x268e…bb7fbacked New York Mets54c243.1$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.271060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked New York Mets53c241.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7331949.5%158 W · 161 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb996…038cbacked New York Mets53c241.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.735846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked New York Mets53c241.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7311953.8%64 W · 55 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89b…a39dbacked New York Mets53c241.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7310148.5%49 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked New York Mets21c238.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.017128.2%20 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked San Francisco Giants48c231.36$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0924348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed New York Mets53c227$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3191749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked New York Mets21c226.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.631,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed New York Mets53c220.03$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6228347.7%135 W · 148 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf89f…32b0backed New York Mets53c220.03$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.622227.3%6 W · 16 L-6.2wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-48.6%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xff75…b615backed New York Mets44c219.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed New York Mets20c217.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0530844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed San Francisco Giants47c208.06$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2722448.7%109 W · 115 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.