MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19a866225c1584a232e5428ee8281a000c7af76f1c3492a6e4c328dca51feb02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 47c | 18,733$8,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,804.33 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 11,896$6,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,630.08 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 53c | 7,021$3,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.99 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,681$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.17 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 45c | 1,295$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.18 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 53c | 760$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.2 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 53c | 760$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.2 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 53c | 760$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.2 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 52c | 749.58$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.8 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 30c | 600$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 37c | 579.09$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.37 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 53c | 458.4$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.45 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 53c | 458.4$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.45 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 277.85$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 48c | 184.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Over | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 146.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 77c | 119.08$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 50c | 85.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…d704backed Over | 52c | 63.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecf…9148backed Under | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 57c | 53.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 53c | 51.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 50c | 50.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…8279backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 52c | 34.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 53c | 25.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Under | 48c | 22.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 53c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 74c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.