TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Lakers, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,943,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,060,664

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,943,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,440 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns34c719,648$244,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475,102.2587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa41…a7a1backed Lakers66c606,061$400,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Suns34c255,555$86,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168,666.372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers66c159,543$104,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,743.032,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Lakers66c80,000$53,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,117.0523257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Lakers66c75,601$49,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,764.719653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers66c60,094$39,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,607.354,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Suns34c60,000$20,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,60037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Lakers44c51,281$22,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,448.141,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Lakers26c45,757$11,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,961.593148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lakers65c41,000$26,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,522.421,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Suns35c39,700$13,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,8051,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe153…7103backed Lakers66c36,500$24,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,089.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Lakers66c36,229$23,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,861.1851354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Suns35c33,999$11,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,009.4911252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Suns49c32,518$15,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,627.431,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Lakers32c29,482$9,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,326.899250%46 W · 46 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns45c28,920$13,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,836.771,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Lakers0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Lakers52c23,340$12,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,179.4927251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Lakers41c23,162$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,50042348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Suns58c21,260$12,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,031.113,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Suns34c20,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,199.935450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Lakers67c18,793$12,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,597.3134456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Lakers2c18,630$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.31,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Lakers65c17,657$11,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,477.061,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Suns52c17,624$9,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,396.6289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Lakers66c16,863$11,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,192.977348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Suns34c16,306$5,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,761.8817356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lakers65c15,000$9,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,7501,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns43c14,544$6,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,288.978,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Suns47c14,491$6,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,622.448956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2219…e243backed Suns34c14,352$4,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,472.315646.4%26 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd359…6007backed Lakers72c13,835$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers55c13,532$7,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,436.594,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Suns35c12,059$4,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,838.2619136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Suns56c11,687$6,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,140.711,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Suns34c11,500$3,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,589.9843348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Suns27c11,270$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,270.1511737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Lakers64c10,636$6,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,819.9832540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5a…a71cbacked Lakers59c10,314$6,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,066.815060%30 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lakers67c10,230$6,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,865.61,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Suns71c10,000$7,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.2320758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Suns34c10,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.9987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e9…dee1backed Lakers57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.943333.3%11 W · 22 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lakers65c9,999$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,499.6476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked Suns35c9,731$3,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,324.645038%19 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83e1…b37bbacked Lakers65c9,660$6,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,307.3516550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lakers9c8,622$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.381,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Lakers65c8,495$5,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,550.911643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Lakers66c8,449$5,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,574.541,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Suns41c8,412$3,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,973.685,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Lakers64c8,329$5,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,325.0236741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Suns35c8,056$2,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,248.3586641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Suns36c8,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,12013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Lakers64c8,000$5,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,119.928052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Suns68c7,966$5,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.4224151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd38c…1128backed Lakers17c7,650$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3211330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns33c7,343$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,919.581,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Suns34c7,000$2,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,62035744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d82…1b86backed Lakers5c7,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Suns36c6,600$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2249054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Lakers64c6,600$4,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,223.898640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Suns42c6,354$2,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,694.211436.8%42 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Suns54c6,313$3,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,903.7819954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Suns41c6,254$2,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.0326444.7%118 W · 146 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd44c…1223backed Suns34c6,000$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,932.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ea…6e4ebacked Lakers59c5,914$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,494.6716146%74 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers67c5,900$3,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9532,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Suns36c5,899$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,775.1515349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Lakers66c5,830$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,847.83148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Suns35c5,797$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,781.1865939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Lakers66c5,783$3,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,838.8729250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Suns36c5,781$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.861,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Suns35c5,700$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,70519957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lakers18c5,595$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.082,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers65c5,583$3,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,612.694,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns48c5,483$2,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,838.015,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Lakers57c5,282$3,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0115350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Suns44c5,233$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.27133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns35c5,088$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,329.864,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Suns34c5,071$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.621,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Suns46c5,000$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.523,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Suns34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Suns34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.9618547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lakers66c4,900$3,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2342,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Suns34c4,790$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,161.3958449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Lakers61c4,701$2,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,857.2650241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Suns56c4,699$2,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.5229547.5%140 W · 155 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Suns35c4,588$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,003.371,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Lakers66c4,545$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00041553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f71…3666backed Suns36c4,400$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,816666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Lakers59c4,388$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,570.2522458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Suns40c4,347$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,597.2938046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa89a…8667backed Lakers66c4,268$2,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,816.571675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Lakers65c4,261$2,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,775.349345.2%42 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Suns33c4,200$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.961,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Suns32c4,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,72048137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb748…5b21backed Suns34c4,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6404330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lakers66c4,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,64038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.