NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x770204d4a6625ead3b756eca1e71f09a3ff131b4be734cb8342fdab6674e8059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 55c | 8,202$4,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,699.75 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 45c | 4,510$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.38 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccb…61dcbacked Over | 55c | 1,895$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.69 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 1,494$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 33c | 1,466$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.85 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 756.78$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.1 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 46c | 694.66$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.54 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 64c | 640.33$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.25 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 602.34$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 50c | 580$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3ddebacked Under | 45c | 560.65$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 475.04$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.02 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 55c | 335.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 320.37$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.27 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 274$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…d5f7backed Under | 76c | 222$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1452…3c00backed Under | 46c | 187$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 162.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 30c | 144.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…d043backed Under | 72c | 138.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 70c | 117.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Over | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…e6e5backed Over | 67c | 104.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 51c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…fc12backed Under | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Under | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 89.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 29c | 85.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 56c | 57.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 41.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 49c | 39.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…2af8backed Over | 56c | 39.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 53c | 36.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Under | 46c | 21.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 68c | 18.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 220.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Suns won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Lakers vs. SunsSuns won
- Lakers vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 218.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 6.5Yes won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.