NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf53312c88f660a6032a9862ce34ccc06e340db4d4bd4a00a76333ade0d7fa484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34f6…4535backed Over | 55c | 1,807$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.14 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,285$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 23c | 1,234$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.33 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,152$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 47c | 1,050$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.49 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 1,022$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.55 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Over | 56c | 941.81$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.19 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 40c | 833.81$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.97 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 773$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.04 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 46c | 600$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 473.53$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.95 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 79c | 272.02$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.02 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 66c | 254.25$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 35c | 142.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Over | 55c | 137.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 21c | 133.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 77c | 123.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 66c | 114.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 40c | 108.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 23c | 107.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…01eebacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 27c | 97.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 95.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 41c | 92.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Over | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 63c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 47c | 73.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 43c | 69.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 65c | 67.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 31c | 60.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 274 | 62%170 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Over | 57c | 48.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 32c | 41.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 79c | 40.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 41c | 39.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…8d6dbacked Over | 65c | 38.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Over | 61c | 32.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 65c | 30.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Over | 58c | 22.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Under | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Suns won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Lakers vs. SunsSuns won
- Lakers vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 218.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 220.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 6.5Yes won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.