TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Golden Knights vs. Red Wings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Red Wings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$925,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $925,929 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 626 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Red Wings55c345,970$190,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190,273.4667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Golden Knights45c250,000$112,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137,50015054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Red Wings56c135,000$75,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,60048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Golden Knights45c101,128$45,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,944.651,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Golden Knights44c54,178$23,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,339.6314650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Golden Knights45c50,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,5001968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Golden Knights46c35,461$16,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,237.0710938.5%42 W · 67 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Golden Knights44c28,409$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,908.8540351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings55c28,392$15,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,701.521,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Golden Knights44c20,959$9,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,718.041,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Red Wings56c20,672$11,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,537.2643456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Red Wings56c14,204$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00012835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Golden Knights44c11,911$5,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,640.191,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Golden Knights45c11,849$5,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,517.183348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Golden Knights46c11,543$5,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,196.762433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Golden Knights44c11,298$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,294.062763%17 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Red Wings55c11,250$6,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,187.551452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Golden Knights45c11,111$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,111.114551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Red Wings56c11,000$6,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,18061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Red Wings55c10,576$5,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,816.861953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Red Wings55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.963661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Golden Knights44c9,999$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,599.6732946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Golden Knights44c9,683$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,422.2256152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights44c9,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,039.981,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Red Wings56c8,929$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Red Wings55c8,643$4,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,724.581,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights45c8,530$3,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,704.1561950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Red Wings56c8,317$4,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,657.7345751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Red Wings55c8,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9726058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Golden Knights44c7,600$3,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,231.9960337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Golden Knights44c6,509$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,645.083743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Red Wings56c6,250$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5008748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Red Wings56c6,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36025552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Golden Knights44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.9913948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Golden Knights45c4,889$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.8950049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings56c4,805$2,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,668.552,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf638…aa50backed Red Wings54c4,285$2,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.141752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings53c4,055$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.23,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Red Wings55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Golden Knights10c3,828$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,458.711,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Golden Knights63c3,743$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.272365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Red Wings55c3,655$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.274949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Red Wings55c3,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.0360249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Golden Knights46c3,500$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89022946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Red Wings43c3,271$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.6528340.3%114 W · 169 L-24.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Red Wings56c3,071$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.985046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Red Wings55c2,727$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9940356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Red Wings56c2,679$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Golden Knights44c2,585$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.5221555.3%119 W · 96 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Golden Knights44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Golden Knights44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40084953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Golden Knights44c2,255$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.5321849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights29c2,198$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.52,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Golden Knights44c2,171$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.7321850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Red Wings56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Golden Knights45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10089249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Red Wings55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Golden Knights45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Golden Knights44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.9822747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Red Wings56c1,981$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.2915145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Golden Knights47c1,980$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.5148050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21fb…fd64backed Golden Knights46c1,942$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights58c1,933$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.7299638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Red Wings56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x021c…b735backed Golden Knights59c1,700$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.461752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Red Wings53c1,696$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.091,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Golden Knights51c1,602$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.476254.8%34 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2002…de36backed Red Wings56c1,307$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7322458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6183…575fbacked Golden Knights46c1,283$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.613444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Golden Knights45c1,280$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70444551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Golden Knights45c1,273$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.8686549.1%425 W · 440 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x311f…71a9backed Red Wings56c1,254$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.281770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+44.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked Red Wings53c1,234$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.8613053.8%70 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4e…c3c3backed Golden Knights9c1,161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.9321534.4%74 W · 141 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9175…d70fbacked Red Wings56c1,160$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.62548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Golden Knights44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.334753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Golden Knights9c1,087$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.3785464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Red Wings56c1,018$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57024749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Red Wings58c1,000$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.3510343.7%45 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Red Wings40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Golden Knights45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55015448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Red Wings56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56024847.6%118 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Golden Knights45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Red Wings57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5702133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x070a…4d55backed Golden Knights10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9004548.9%22 W · 23 L+7.6wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+70.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Red Wings56c999.99$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5564454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Golden Knights44c999.97$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.7891653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Golden Knights45c999.93$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.9645749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Red Wings55c997.07$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.3938046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Golden Knights42c971.11$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.4195049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Golden Knights16c929.82$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.8217442.5%74 W · 100 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Golden Knights47c912.69$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.7333447.9%160 W · 174 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Red Wings55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce50…b747backed Red Wings55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008756.3%49 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Red Wings56c900$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50422352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe481…b24abacked Red Wings56c840$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.41338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Red Wings60c817.59$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.8328652.4%150 W · 136 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Golden Knights47c804.19$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.1936948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf294…d8fdbacked Red Wings45c795.14$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.8210350.5%52 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Golden Knights42c786$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.8830944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.