NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44857a49e88099257fe8458576eb0dbb7d863aa4f03df2afa7158fa73dd5e4be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,188 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 56c | 17,850$9,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,996 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 11,376$4,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,539.71 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 44c | 4,506$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.52 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 3,533$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.51 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.98 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 42c | 1,946$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.83 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 57c | 1,295$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Under | 57c | 1,270$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 936.99$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.71 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 58c | 845$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.1 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 43c | 690.76$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.01 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 683.9$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 44c | 681.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.52 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 46c | 608$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.65 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 558.52$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.84 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 383.93$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.29 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 44c | 280$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed Under | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 56c | 238$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2e…7913backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 150.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 52c | 145.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…6c84backed Under | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 64c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 51c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Under | 57c | 87.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…2494backed Under | 57c | 86.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 70c | 78.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked Under | 57c | 71.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 64c | 59.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…123cbacked Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 39.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1213…5ed6backed Under | 30c | 34.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7911…85a6backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Over | 42c | 33.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Over | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 26.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 58c | 24.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 49c | 22.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Over | 70c | 21.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. Red WingsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.