TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Wild

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wildof Lightning, Wild
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$410,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$423,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lightning56c122,716$68,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,721.2240351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Wild44c115,000$50,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,40048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Lightning55c24,083$13,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,192.2767051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wild44c18,799$8,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,522.251,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wild44c14,987$6,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,393.51,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Wild45c11,096$4,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,102.7514553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Wild44c10,227$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,727.2750049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Wild44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6003661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1632…cb68backed Wild45c9,100$4,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,004.842748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning56c8,344$4,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,649.2921755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lightning56c8,200$4,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,593.9761748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning56c7,830$4,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,384.711,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Lightning56c6,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3604440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Lightning27c5,900$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.1560337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Wild45c5,699$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,134.4675251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Lightning56c5,582$3,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,134.83348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Lightning56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Wild43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.9829146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Lightning23c4,921$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.8558467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Lightning35c4,401$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.939344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Lightning57c4,395$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wild48c4,215$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.882,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wild44c4,002$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.511,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2401,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning55c3,838$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1112,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Lightning57c3,509$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wild45c3,439$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.6361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Wild44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.992142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Lightning40c2,816$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13614837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Wild70c2,680$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.3589355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Wild44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.9544551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning22c2,386$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.6489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning55c2,352$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.686649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf294…d8fdbacked Lightning19c2,097$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.310350.5%52 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Wild43c2,090$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.1133652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Lightning42c2,009$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.5743456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Lightning55c1,889$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.76450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lightning56c1,783$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.3866552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked Lightning23c1,626$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Wild44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8404450%22 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Wild44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lightning55c1,465$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.5556152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4477…f882backed Lightning57c1,352$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.591145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Lightning25c1,313$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.349258.7%54 W · 38 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Wild68c1,313$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.5921555.3%119 W · 96 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Wild39c1,313$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.21,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lightning18c1,250$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4499638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Lightning41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50035829.3%105 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Wild43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.8942847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Lightning14c1,071$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Wild46c1,020$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.811252.7%59 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Lightning39c1,018$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011950.4%60 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Lightning54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5409853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56070547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Lightning1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Wild44c999.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.999157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning56c999.97$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Wild45c963$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.6554047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning55c900$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49522352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Lightning56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce50…b747backed Lightning56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008756.3%49 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Lightning56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Wild63c800.78$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.291435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Wild44c795.45$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.4543743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Wild73c792.25$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.8743742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Wild44c785$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.626551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf252…fa0abacked Wild44c743.48$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.351275%9 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+63.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd78d…56dfbacked Wild44c740.02$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.412740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Lightning42c715.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30036948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Wild44c714.7$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.231,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked Lightning53c710.13$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.3713053.8%70 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Wild44c681.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.8255446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Lightning12c669$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1911533.9%39 W · 76 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8607…3838backed Wild44c657.84$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.39862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa357…467cbacked Lightning13c601.91$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+112.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Lightning21c600$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12327334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning25c599.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15057238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Lightning32c591.17$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7751949.5%257 W · 262 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Lightning42c590.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508852.3%46 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5559…c074backed Lightning57c580.56$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.921752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb781…5905backed Lightning57c555.32$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.531241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Lightning12c555$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.62222.7%5 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+79%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wild44c542.62$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.521,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Lightning56c540$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.48060%48 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb47c…9323backed Lightning57c505.06$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.881050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Lightning57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1999…1e92backed Wild44c495.45$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.451560%9 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Lightning56c482.14$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27047256.8%268 W · 204 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb3d…4239backed Lightning57c448.89$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.872147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8487…a68bbacked Wild45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.442552%13 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lightning16c414.53$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5992049.7%457 W · 463 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Lightning55c412.4$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.8245955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Lightning56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2245745.6%26 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Lightning56c392.86$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,09351.8%566 W · 527 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Lightning41c383$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.999442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4f…10f2backed Lightning57c364.14$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.562352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e88…f3c9backed Lightning40c362.48$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Lightning23c359$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0231540.3%127 W · 188 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.