NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe581766c83b04a7b4cf3f65a8cf80c95f8e4870a570b8bf55b14f23b909b0d20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 41c | 1,750$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.03 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 24c | 852.5$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.76 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…e25abacked Over | 59c | 842.66$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 33c | 760.57$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.99 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 697.85$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.22 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 617.24$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.24 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 68c | 501.47$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…e860backed Under | 44c | 481.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Over | 74c | 337$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -67%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 270.08$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.99 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 56c | 260.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 254.63$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 34c | 235.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 43c | 188$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 51c | 148.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 56c | 143.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 128.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 60c | 101.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 57c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 59c | 47.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Over | 59c | 41.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 74c | 39.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 69c | 32.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 260 | 59.6%155 W · 105 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…5c02backed Over | 72c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Over | 68c | 15.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. WildWild won
- Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Wild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.