NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c404be97f97ad2346217a99bedaaacba248c5c70b445e4531f0d004c03814d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Lightning, Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 34c | 1,496$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.47 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Wild | 66c | 1,107$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.38 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Wild | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Lightning | 34c | 420$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Lightning | 33c | 305.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lightning | 32c | 297.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Wild | 67c | 285.89$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 34c | 219.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Lightning | 34c | 210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Wild | 67c | 186.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…b711backed Lightning | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Wild | 70c | 171.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wild | 75c | 168.12$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Wild | 68c | 147.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wild | 66c | 135.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Wild | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wild | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed Lightning | 34c | 106.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Lightning | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Lightning | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Wild | 68c | 103.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Wild | 68c | 100.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Lightning | 33c | 97.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Wild | 67c | 75.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lightning | 30c | 70.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Lightning | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaed…37d5backed Lightning | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Wild | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Lightning | 33c | 44.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Wild | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…50e2backed Wild | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wild | 67c | 26.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Wild | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. WildWild won
- Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.