TailMyPicks
Market

Premier League · resolved market

Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$395,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,257 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cc6…9df6backed Yes47c121,358$57,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,020.562138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed No53c82,481$43,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,766.1513748.2%66 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No57c27,820$15,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,069.056,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed No61c17,493$10,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,765.852286.4%19 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+52.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed No75c15,000$11,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,794.674148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Yes37c11,302$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,200933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No74c7,783$5,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.612,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No68c6,487$4,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.852,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No74c5,617$4,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.744,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No74c5,072$3,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.441,00751.5%519 W · 488 L+4.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.974434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes25c4,932$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23385748.5%416 W · 441 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63fa…7ea4backed Yes26c4,456$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.662240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid+43.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed No47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1206435.9%23 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d9…6964backed Yes26c3,815$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.881216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c2…cd02backed Yes27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8101776.5%13 W · 4 L+5.8wins+0.34per pick42cpaid+137%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xed70…48c1backed No74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7803100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe726…4c87backed Yes26c2,882$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.192420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51aa…10dabacked Yes11c2,827$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.671942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes45c2,796$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.312,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf24b…d4cebacked Yes26c2,751$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.35246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe427…c02bbacked Yes27c2,500$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.541040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Yes10c2,310$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5911450.9%58 W · 56 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked No47c2,127$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.899550.5%48 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No75c2,073$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.3315757.3%90 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38a…3293backed Yes22c1,806$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed No51c1,762$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.54850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes26c1,700$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4429347.3%44 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe633…3a32backed Yes27c1,526$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4df…39a0backed Yes71c1,411$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes25c1,410$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.310626.4%28 W · 78 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Yes29c1,379$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd43…cd41backed No74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.262875%21 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…fa51backed Yes55c1,330$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes26c1,300$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3386437.5%24 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+47.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Yes33c1,300$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4291947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8544…3d33backed Yes58c1,242$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.013450%17 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes42c1,239$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5246547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Yes26c1,200$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3122948.3%14 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick34cpaid+29%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes25c1,162$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.4690751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed No59c1,158$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.268062.5%50 W · 30 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0391…ef9bbacked Yes9c1,125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…ff3ebacked Yes30c1,010$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf87c…da0cbacked No55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Yes25c999.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No72c948.26$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.2546943.5%204 W · 265 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed Yes32c937.72$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce1…d753backed Yes56c923.69$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.122630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed No69c908.05$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.6261143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed No79c899.99$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1865759.6%34 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed No30c778.69$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.1627141.7%113 W · 158 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes26c770$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.21741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x702b…dedebacked Yes26c769.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes28c756$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2517327.2%47 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No70c700.3$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.091,00446.3%465 W · 539 L+25.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No67c699$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.6722458.9%132 W · 92 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd263…27d8backed Yes29c694.9$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+257.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48c…9e7dbacked Yes26c612.38$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes6c600$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367131%22 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked Yes41c586.13$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.141450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Yes26c576.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509846.9%46 W · 52 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb88…8e33backed Yes63c527.63$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a21…50d3backed Yes26c523.08$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13611746.2%54 W · 63 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes26c520.9$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3853344.8%239 W · 294 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Yes27c501$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7860%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes25c499.98$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9931053.2%165 W · 145 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No74c499.88$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8452454.2%284 W · 240 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38b…696ebacked Yes21c481.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes15c480$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726139.3%24 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0390…e9fdbacked Yes26c457.65$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54fe…5850backed Yes6c449.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-32.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes12c440.17$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5511527%31 W · 84 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029024.8%72 W · 218 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…31f9backed Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1a…30d8backed Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502450%12 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+55.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x941f…acfabacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Yes4c386.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4810540%42 W · 63 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…5a41backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015553.5%83 W · 72 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b77…ee2cbacked Yes38c381.68$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035428.5%101 W · 253 L-20.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Yes32c359.38$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked Yes56c357.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001060%6 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9952…ceb2backed No53c349.64$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.334551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes26c338$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.818123.2%42 W · 139 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1529…ba87backed Yes31c326.04$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No74c319.22$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8330050.3%151 W · 149 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No74c307.67$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9932453.1%172 W · 152 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No65c296.25$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7345142.6%192 W · 259 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes58c291.15$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.451,27250.4%641 W · 631 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes41c273.39$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8682763%521 W · 306 L+113.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfa83…4965backed Yes38c263.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002020%4 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4a3…bce8backed Yes26c259$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.343043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa80…f251backed Yes39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Yes27c245.78$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3612236.1%44 W · 78 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2c1…e445backed Yes5c233.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae0…8f73backed Yes14c233.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.631330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abb…5dd3backed No75c231.55$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Yes62c214.88$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0730%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes26c209.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.583327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.