Weather · resolved market
Will Trump say "Messi" 3+ times during Inter Miami events on Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ecbc7882d4d733088e871336725035ce7e238701b30829c9e23ab9eefcd29b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,576 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 36c | 1,091$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 66c | 751.95$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…e210backed No | 38c | 560.41$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…b880backed Yes | 60c | 557.63$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +483.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 38c | 541.49$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 61c | 431$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.09 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 64c | 420.07$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 40c | 385$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 17c | 293.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 35c | 234.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 65c | 189.48$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd949…10c3backed No | 38c | 180.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…f11abacked No | 20c | 164.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 30c | 160.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…17e2backed Yes | 68c | 146.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…8898backed Yes | 72c | 138.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 38c | 116.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 43c | 115.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 34c | 106.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes | 63c | 105.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…316cbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 33c | 99.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…bd29backed No | 38c | 85.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 63c | 66.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 65.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 59c | 62.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…c0fbbacked Yes | 70c | 57.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901a…0b9abacked No | 32c | 52.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…318abacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…ad54backed No | 33c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 39c | 46.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 65c | 38.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…3aaebacked Yes | 67c | 37.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 61c | 32.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e39…fc4cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597a…5df0backed Yes | 65c | 30.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 67c | 28.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed No | 36c | 28.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…83e9backed Yes | 62c | 27.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d0…a337backed Yes | 63c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 72c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…8fb7backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Messi" 3+ times during Inter Miami events on Thursday?this page
- Will Trump say "Bad Bunny" or "Crypto" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Barron" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Cristiano" or "Ronaldo" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "First Term" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "GOAT" or "Greatest Of All Time" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Gianni" or "Infantino" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Handsome" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" or "Hot" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Make Argentina Great Again / Milei" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Oval Office" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pelé" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Picture" or "Photo" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Rubio" or "Hegseth" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sucker" or "Soccer" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "World Cup" or "Olympics" 4+ times during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.