TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will Trump say "Cristiano" or "Ronaldo" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,046 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1baa…6eb3backed No7c900$63 inLost-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No10c550$55 inLost-$556219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No10c400$40 inLost-$401811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+118.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No7c400$28 inLost-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked No66c222.62$146 inLost-$145.8550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No28c173$48 inLost-$48.397,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9177…318abacked Yes33c121.83$40 inWon+$81.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+47%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes43c91.05$39 inWon+$51.79977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed No38c70$27 inLost-$26.89933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bec…b445backed No79c63.03$50 inLost-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes20c57.03$11 inWon+$45.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed No76c55$42 inLost-$41.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed No50c50$25 inLost-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No66c50$33 inLost-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid+52.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a5…379abacked No77c45.45$35 inLost-$35425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda86…6ff9backed Yes34c44.07$15 inWon+$29.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No42c39.99$17 inLost-$16.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed No76c29$22 inLost-$21.994337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No42c26.89$11 inLost-$11.294656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No72c23.15$17 inLost-$16.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick66cpaid-51%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2258…1451backed Yes58c21.38$12 inWon+$8.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No68c16$11 inLost-$10.821650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e46…24debacked No77c14.54$11 inLost-$11.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.