Weather · resolved market
Will Trump say "Iran" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cfe2225065613592baa763c54d68cc97691c5b59d79fce46985e62cc563243b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,308 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 687$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 59c | 314.15$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3666…1751backed Yes | 48c | 280.17$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 63c | 261$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 64c | 219.24$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 43c | 183.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…231ebacked Yes | 39c | 127.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 127.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a03…7de2backed Yes | 41c | 126.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…c0fbbacked Yes | 48c | 82.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked Yes | 37c | 81.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 57c | 78.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 74.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6b…44d8backed Yes | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 34c | 62.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…83e9backed No | 59c | 57.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 32c | 53.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 35c | 48.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 53c | 43.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba24…8df2backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…4f50backed Yes | 38c | 37.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcae…26a0backed Yes | 61c | 24.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…d389backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…c7acbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed No | 68c | 17.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?this page
- Will Trump say "Bad Bunny" or "Crypto" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Barron" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Cristiano" or "Ronaldo" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "First Term" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "GOAT" or "Greatest Of All Time" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Gianni" or "Infantino" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Handsome" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" or "Hot" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Make Argentina Great Again / Milei" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Messi" 3+ times during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oval Office" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pelé" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Picture" or "Photo" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No won
- Will Trump say "Rubio" or "Hegseth" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sucker" or "Soccer" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "World Cup" or "Olympics" 4+ times during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Yes won
- Will Trump's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.