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Weather · resolved market

Will Trump say "World Cup" or "Olympics" 4+ times during Inter Miami events on Thursday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,281 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52ab…38f8backed No1c4,033$35 inLost-$34.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c153.08$24 inLost-$23.817,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1733…9411backed No42c152.01$63 inLost-$63.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab5b…316cbacked Yes77c129.88$100 inWon+$29.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc98b…ad54backed No37c124.85$46 inLost-$45.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes79c112.95$89 inWon+$23.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes60c110$66 inWon+$43.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed No24c109.99$26 inLost-$26.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes57c100$57 inWon+$431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed No43c98.2$42 inLost-$42.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd949…10c3backed No33c96.96$32 inLost-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98cc…852fbacked Yes63c80$50 inWon+$29.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+104.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No30c50$15 inLost-$15862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes67c49.99$33 inWon+$16.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes65c44.2$29 inWon+$15.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked No25c42.95$11 inLost-$10.7450%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdef…5312backed Yes75c41.35$31 inWon+$10.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Yes74c40.54$30 inWon+$10.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes61c38.84$24 inWon+$15977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb5e…5de9backed Yes73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6bf…c7acbacked No49c21.97$11 inLost-$10.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes51c20.41$10 inWon+$1049024.9%122 W · 368 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes58c19.5$11 inWon+$8.1698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes68c15$10 inWon+$4.851435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.