TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will Trump say "Pelé" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,374 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1baa…6eb3backed No4c1,000$40 inLost-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No74c804.48$592 inLost-$591.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-68.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked Yes22c323.89$71 inWon+$252.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid+52.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No78c300$234 inLost-$234837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick66cpaid-51%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Yes31c200$61 inWon+$139450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes57c118.15$68 inWon+$50.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes19c106.49$21 inWon+$85.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c85.47$17 inLost-$17.157,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2bc3…724dbacked Yes22c77$17 inWon+$59.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+345.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9177…318abacked Yes41c70.3$29 inWon+$41.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+47%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes27c70.01$19 inWon+$51.06812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes22c68.15$15 inWon+$53.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No64c61.66$39 inLost-$39.465974.6%44 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes28c50$14 inWon+$36862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37fa…1136backed Yes20c50$10 inWon+$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+68.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No80c48.25$39 inLost-$38.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No36c45.77$16 inLost-$16.481,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes28c39.36$11 inWon+$28.1846824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No67c29$19 inLost-$19.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc3…d1bcbacked No73c15$11 inLost-$10.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.