Commodities · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40cf230326551f5c767d88fc96d0266eff3791a49874f292397124444071d173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,064 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 40c | 6,970$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.8 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 44c | 5,539$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -68%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,639$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 69c | 3,704$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.62 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 77c | 3,475$2,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 48c | 3,281$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 28c | 3,258$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.40per pick | 24cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…c018backed Yes | 67c | 3,020$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 56c | 2,100$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 69cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 52c | 1,718$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 1,707$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.79 | 952 | 40.1%382 W · 570 L | -71.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 38c | 1,704$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.72 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…4f9abacked Yes | 71c | 1,561$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 12c | 1,550$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 26cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked No | 40c | 1,438$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,381$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 4c | 1,263$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 1,200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked No | 62c | 1,158$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 1,156$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 11c | 1,156$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.38 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 48c | 1,145$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 60c | 1,047$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.27 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…607cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,009$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…9200backed Yes | 71c | 909.72$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 892.7$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.65 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 49c | 818.71$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.71 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 39c | 772.99$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 49c | 762.71$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 38c | 717.54$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.88 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 60c | 699.99$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed No | 3c | 675.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a2…5ccfbacked Yes | 36c | 627.59$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 21c | 621.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad7…f691backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 5c | 599.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…e8fdbacked Yes | 49c | 592.45$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 34c | 566.84$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.64 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 43c | 566.73$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…dfc7backed Yes | 60c | 545.12$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 35c | 539.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 56c | 507.03$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.09 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…6e70backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 47c | 488.11$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.52 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 33c | 481.1$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…2dcfbacked Yes | 64c | 468.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 39c | 463.46$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 66c | 459.15$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.07 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 29c | 452.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…9506backed No | 23c | 439.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…227cbacked Yes | 61c | 428.27$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 30c | 419.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…68fbbacked Yes | 72c | 415.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…8f06backed Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 56c | 384.17$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed No | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 57c | 350$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.37 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…f540backed Yes | 35c | 339.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 36c | 338.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…50dcbacked Yes | 68c | 332.06$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7819…eccebacked No | 63c | 315.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 66c | 314.79$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 47c | 313.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 312.02$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 357 | 34.5%123 W · 234 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 293.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…d49bbacked Yes | 38c | 292.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 283.39$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 63c | 267.15$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 15c | 262.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes | 48c | 259.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 41c | 246.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 41c | 241.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…7112backed Yes | 73c | 232.35$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…9f40backed Yes | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked No | 45c | 222.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked No | 30c | 221.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 30c | 221$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +186.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 216$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1,060 | 35%371 W · 689 L | -92.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 44c | 206.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.16 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 72c | 205.46$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…31edbacked Yes | 64c | 201.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 35c | 200.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.09 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 36c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 31c | 196.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6699…604ebacked Yes | 59c | 187.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…a586backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…54c8backed Yes | 59c | 169.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabb…6c95backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…e529backed Yes | 47c | 166.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed No | 64c | 158.02$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed No | 52c | 155.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…3e69backed Yes | 64c | 155.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?this page
- Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?No won
- Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.