Commodities · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b13e676a964d0c87f3b44203d71e64cc361df39c0a1b3b93f129c93076354d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 3c | 13,003$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 8,136$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 22c | 5,106$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f5…e1d2backed No | 8c | 4,334$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed No | 1c | 4,030$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed No | 3c | 3,456$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…5e87backed No | 1c | 3,084$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 65c | 2,655$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 4c | 2,588$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 1c | 2,516$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 5c | 2,290$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 4c | 2,283$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,642$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,571$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked No | 2c | 1,300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 3c | 1,203$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 2c | 589.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 9c | 572.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed No | 3c | 560.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6b69backed No | 7c | 502.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…27e2backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…143bbacked No | 2c | 422.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…b138backed No | 3c | 380$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 3c | 326.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…2941backed No | 7c | 322.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…a216backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…fc66backed No | 9c | 234.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 5c | 202$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed No | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…5cc9backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…935fbacked Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?this page
- Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?No won
- Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.