Commodities · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d87eb09704572f515e1dc472bc1f3dac6835cbb06a6c72c1d0b3486cd0ad97c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,372,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,306,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,372,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 430 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…d39abacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa926…d15ebacked No | 0c | 26,138$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…589cbacked No | 0c | 25,014$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 0c | 25,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…7a77backed No | 1c | 24,521$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…5a0bbacked No | 3c | 21,260$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…3ea7backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…cbffbacked No | 0c | 19,980$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…8c9dbacked No | 0c | 19,610$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…23a8backed No | 2c | 15,537$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 15,531$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b27…ddd4backed No | 1c | 15,283$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 1c | 14,811$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed No | 0c | 13,650$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked No | 77c | 13,566$10,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,503.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…b4c9backed No | 1c | 13,220$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabb…4094backed No | 0c | 11,907$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed5…6937backed No | 0c | 11,038$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…7c25backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1302…a80fbacked No | 0c | 10,836$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked No | 0c | 10,420$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 2c | 10,314$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +135%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 1c | 10,301$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked No | 0c | 10,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…ab6fbacked No | 0c | 10,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb80…7555backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…4b7fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…d8e6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978f…937abacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 1c | 9,988$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 8,919$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,925.24 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked No | 1c | 8,450$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba42…2657backed No | 1c | 8,307$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked No | 14c | 7,816$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b3cbacked No | 1c | 6,805$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 15c | 6,174$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.54 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…899abacked No | 0c | 5,769$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd451…2c8fbacked No | 5c | 5,329$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…c577backed No | 3c | 5,228$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 35c | 5,174$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,352.41 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 52c | 5,084$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,667.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 32c | 4,627$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,133.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 58c | 4,298$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.1 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 3c | 4,253$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 2c | 4,035$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.40per pick | 24cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 72c | 3,980$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…e8e5backed Yes | 25c | 3,962$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.47 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +48%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 66c | 3,496$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.05 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…6c6fbacked No | 0c | 3,443$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…56e8backed No | 71c | 3,300$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…b920backed Yes | 65c | 3,252$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ab…2e0fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,180$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Yes | 28c | 3,108$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.22 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 8c | 2,933$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.18 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed Yes | 28c | 2,924$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 18c | 2,874$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.03 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…f836backed No | 41c | 2,801$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked No | 44c | 2,690$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.76 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 63c | 2,541$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.25 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 79c | 2,510$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.77 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 17c | 2,450$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +76%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 26c | 2,408$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bf…9a7dbacked No | 1c | 2,402$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 71c | 2,372$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…30dabacked No | 0c | 2,284$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…00ddbacked No | 2c | 2,234$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 37c | 2,070$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.96 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 21c | 2,069$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.43 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 74c | 2,008$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked No | 1c | 2,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 15c | 1,962$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.59 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2743…7963backed No | 1c | 1,954$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 24c | 1,952$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…069fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,941$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 27c | 1,925$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f5…e1d2backed No | 15c | 1,887$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed No | 45c | 1,881$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 15c | 1,871$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.17 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 36c | 1,868$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked No | 1c | 1,862$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked No | 3c | 1,850$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…a502backed No | 1c | 1,825$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 15c | 1,775$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.71 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed No | 7c | 1,744$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…dedbbacked No | 1c | 1,702$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 26c | 1,701$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed No | 28c | 1,474$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…3471backed No | 1c | 1,448$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…3a22backed No | 1c | 1,431$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 11c | 1,373$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.72 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +7.2wins | +0.32per pick | 42cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b0c2backed No | 21c | 1,366$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…4e68backed No | 80c | 1,362$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 73c | 1,358$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked No | 1c | 1,335$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked No | 4c | 1,307$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…152cbacked No | 12c | 1,261$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?this page
- Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?No won
- Will Israel or the US target Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.