Commodities · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7983f395997771c7e47a91b741d7a728f00e8dec4a17c2074232177a8b7f54b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 3,313$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 6c | 2,266$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 2c | 1,493$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,292$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,228$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 608.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 13c | 525$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 4c | 358.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643b…cd1cbacked No | 40c | 188$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 17c | 168$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed No | 13c | 159.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 58c | 154.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 14c | 141.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 8c | 135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 131.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…a65ebacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…935fbacked No | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…17e2backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…e0cbbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a3…0394backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…8055backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility?this page
- Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?No won
- Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.