Commodities · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bfcaf4064012bbb37855cc3cf1961460f435f1742c90b18e5362b9fb24ae56d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 52c | 4,550$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 14c | 4,360$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.18 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 52c | 4,088$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 20c | 4,033$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 54c | 3,414$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.24 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 41c | 3,253$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.61 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 44c | 3,190$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.1 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…8e23backed Yes | 46c | 2,740$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 54c | 2,525$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 40c | 2,423$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.03 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff58…99efbacked Yes | 57c | 1,741$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed Yes | 28c | 1,614$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,612$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 40c | 1,529$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.8 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845b…43e2backed Yes | 55c | 1,462$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 47c | 1,340$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.79 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…b672backed Yes | 62c | 1,124$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…2dcfbacked Yes | 54c | 1,110$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed No | 40c | 1,023$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 41c | 999.98$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 973.82$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.29 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…9200backed No | 37c | 942.05$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked No | 53c | 941.25$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 26c | 916.92$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.4 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…134bbacked No | 67c | 894.7$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 865.35$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.29 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 69c | 784.73$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.47 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…e45abacked No | 62c | 772.16$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 49c | 763.99$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.53 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 42c | 758.88$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.1 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 44c | 755$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.8 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 740.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2e43backed Yes | 14c | 671.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…6e70backed Yes | 65c | 600$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…68fbbacked Yes | 67c | 594.45$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…dd31backed No | 51c | 578.69$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked No | 53c | 552$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…76eabacked No | 37c | 543.89$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…bc2bbacked Yes | 57c | 537.14$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes | 51c | 510$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…8ffebacked Yes | 59c | 499.98$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 41c | 478.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.8 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…1c13backed No | 58c | 462.91$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…d45fbacked No | 65c | 449$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…403abacked Yes | 45c | 445.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 55c | 431.68$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.03 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 23c | 428.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 11c | 417.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 400.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…42aebacked Yes | 11c | 377.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…607cbacked Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4c…e44fbacked Yes | 62c | 367.2$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…517ebacked No | 69c | 356$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed No | 52c | 353.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 31c | 345.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 5c | 339.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 59c | 334.65$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 64c | 333$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.23 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 59c | 314.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…2ee6backed Yes | 59c | 304.44$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 302.32$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 63c | 294.63$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…04e9backed Yes | 7c | 289$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 11c | 286.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed No | 31c | 272.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…e08abacked Yes | 42c | 271.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 253.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 80c | 251.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…8a5dbacked Yes | 9c | 251.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 23c | 250$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 40c | 250$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 249.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 242.93$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 29c | 224.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 220.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 43c | 216.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 49c | 212.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…f732backed Yes | 47c | 211.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 44c | 210.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…39ddbacked No | 44c | 194$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 38c | 183.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…5d7bbacked No | 63c | 180.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 171.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…836bbacked Yes | 54c | 170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 168.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…2e73backed Yes | 60c | 166.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 14c | 162$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba0…a76dbacked Yes | 8c | 156.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?this page
- Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.