Us Politics · resolved market
Will "The Epstein Files" reach #1 on Apple Podcast by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d144e7c0457a18ade753079af79ed89855c8e4a853cbfef21ecb6a5cc4d8a8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,106 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb54f…969bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,534$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…5d40backed Yes | 0c | 3,790$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8424…7e80backed Yes | 0c | 3,210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 26c | 2,539$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked Yes | 24c | 1,486$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,447$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 14c | 1,263$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,042$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…eb83backed Yes | 19c | 885$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…7547backed Yes | 7c | 723.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 60c | 579.67$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.31 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 12c | 519.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed Yes | 30c | 496.71$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 478.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 11c | 435.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 12c | 394$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 12c | 372$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 12c | 343$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 332.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597a…5df0backed Yes | 7c | 316.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76e2…7784backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 285.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 260.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf63e…d3afbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 244.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 240.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 10c | 235.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 66c | 232.89$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f4…930abacked Yes | 28c | 230.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d45…1479backed Yes | 14c | 218.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 80c | 210$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15f…e92ebacked Yes | 20c | 190.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 173.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 12c | 146$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes | 39c | 127.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 25c | 126.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11a…5a65backed Yes | 18c | 109.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 16c | 103.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…7574backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…7f90backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…442fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…1ec9backed Yes | 22c | 87.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 15c | 83.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…671fbacked Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 33c | 79.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 66c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…7899backed Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 16c | 65.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…49d8backed No | 79c | 63.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…384ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…555abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…d3d5backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…efefbacked No | 80c | 37.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 79c | 36.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8906…7b41backed No | 68c | 34.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8386…c2f2backed No | 60c | 30.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a96…3337backed No | 66c | 25.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…5ee6backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 65c | 21.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adc…2040backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.