TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Winter Games 2026: Lindsey Vonn to medal?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x226b…cad6backed No67c20,600$13,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,808.411573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeeb5…f7cebacked Yes1c14,338$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes36c10,936$3,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.652420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes31c9,552$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,965.011020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes42c5,098$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.523522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes0c3,341$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes71c2,996$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.761822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked No57c2,500$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1b…c86fbacked No59c2,400$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked No61c1,811$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b4…97debacked Yes55c1,751$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked No54c1,500$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.58236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,476$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-75.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes23c1,267$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.72728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Yes24c1,188$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes39c1,158$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.53616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No57c1,100$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.747627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes31c1,000$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.612927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae5…910abacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid+63.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c86…c427backed No71c999.96$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes49c953.78$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.971947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked No68c950.69$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.431457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c896.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9c…ae1ebacked Yes5c895.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1d…8bacbacked Yes46c790.33$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes36c784.35$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.765151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed No63c681.31$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.591250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c4…7976backed Yes45c656.06$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.8220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0479…f2ddbacked No60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Yes24c596.77$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.762250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Yes17c583.13$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.76120%0 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Yes26c567.74$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.81771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes46c554.64$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No62c545.51$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-73.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes42c517.6$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.85683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed7…6923backed No59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed Yes10c500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed No61c494.44$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.441154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed No55c494.39$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.71428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff6…d1fdbacked No69c425.94$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x659f…220cbacked Yes24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc671…d1d8backed Yes28c400$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes30c393.98$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc932…e6a5backed No59c375.74$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.741442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc8…cb0dbacked Yes24c354.15$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed No77c350$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes33c327$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.76123%14 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e7…d051backed Yes29c323.33$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.73825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed No67c300.48$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1c…fb66backed No65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No66c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked No68c296.85$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c284.11$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.245318.9%10 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d22…d039backed Yes15c269.67$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7a7…64bfbacked Yes39c254.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x411e…ea8bbacked No9c253$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.69560%3 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick8cpaid+529.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd0aa…272abacked Yes28c252$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes25c249$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.211450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes32c225.31$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb174…2183backed No62c202.85$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489b…c4dbbacked No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes41c199.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d83…d3f2backed No60c199.99$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b41…7389backed No60c181.73$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd4…35b5backed No12c172.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb53c…3f9abacked No61c171.17$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed No61c171$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.181546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked No40c164.76$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.86837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+123.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Yes26c162.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a83…9c16backed Yes33c159.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dd…c0cdbacked Yes30c159$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.41010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes26c156.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.298535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes42c149.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.56942%29 W · 40 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+42.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x55aa…4f8ebacked Yes24c149.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.78728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-61%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce2e…4257backed Yes68c147.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61bf…9862backed Yes29c139.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef2e…11eabacked No72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes37c125.49$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.431478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+55.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x41b2…7402backed Yes43c120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked No72c119.92$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab1c…35a7backed No55c111.21$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f14…68c5backed No76c105.52$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec3…0cf1backed No64c102.13$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.01560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc36a…c0f2backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa548…1fd5backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02aa…ed9fbacked Yes45c99.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a48…497ebacked No42c96.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e7b…e17ebacked No61c90$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4589…d745backed No56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e2…b4cbbacked Yes29c87.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes28c85.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c5…5f2abacked No61c82.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc30…59a3backed No62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe384…7fafbacked Yes28c75.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f1…893bbacked No40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc911…01f7backed No57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.