Golf · resolved market
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2fd2d4667bf71065f7c9435f3dbb6ec5ef1f76a2868c0131069ab3b59ddcf1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,002 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e32…18e6backed Yes | 11c | 2,999$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,669.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…c538backed Yes | 10c | 302$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 10cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x597a…5df0backed Yes | 37c | 221.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.36 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 153.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 60c | 137.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…b768backed No | 45c | 95.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 56c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 51c | 44.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 46c | 28.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 23.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 56c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?this page
- Will Daniel Berger finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?Yes won
- Will Jordan Spieth finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
- Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.