NHL · resolved market
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dfb6f83e03dc6229dd9474e8818372c59fb337b4c03f3e48265a56279ca7208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6080…3abebacked Yes | 13c | 8,115$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,767$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.94 | 340 | 32.4%110 W · 230 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 20c | 2,289$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.22 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Yes | 3c | 2,120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 11c | 1,743$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29a…09c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,479$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,440$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 1,310$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,309$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 24c | 1,241$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.74 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2f75backed Yes | 8c | 1,224$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 22c | 1,182$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.01 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 2c | 990.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 5c | 985.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 11c | 700$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 685.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597a…5df0backed Yes | 14c | 595.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 11c | 571.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 510.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 64c | 456.5$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.34 | 317 | 53.9%171 W · 146 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Yes | 22c | 433.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82b7…cc32backed Yes | 25c | 407.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Yes | 12c | 378.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2d…4bfebacked Yes | 40c | 372$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866e…919dbacked Yes | 3c | 348.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…03c2backed Yes | 3c | 338.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Yes | 8c | 289.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 255$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 7c | 247.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 15c | 242.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 78c | 230.51$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…7e41backed Yes | 12c | 226.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb22…2815backed Yes | 11c | 210.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…a380backed Yes | 14c | 206.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 202.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 201.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Yes | 8c | 185.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…34fabacked Yes | 14c | 185.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 10c | 182$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 77c | 149.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0132…c314backed Yes | 17c | 145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed Yes | 17c | 117.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Yes | 17c | 116.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8477…665fbacked Yes | 13c | 109.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 20c | 100.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc53…72e9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 17c | 95.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…947ebacked Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 15c | 94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Yes | 22c | 92.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 19c | 92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 84.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Yes | 24c | 83.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…3b2fbacked Yes | 24c | 83.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…4167backed Yes | 15c | 82.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 71.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 66.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…7363backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…8a3bbacked Yes | 25c | 59.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…ff0ebacked Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2c…633abacked No | 73c | 33.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…52d9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?this page
- Will Clayton Keller win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?No won
- Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?No won
- Will Logan Stankoven win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?No won
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?No won
- Will Nick Suzuki win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?No won
- Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?Yes won
- Will Patrik Laine win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.