TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes12c14,553$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.453520%7 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes47c4,941$2,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.531,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x139b…2f75backed Yes9c4,735$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Yes42c3,760$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.7961959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes5c3,730$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.092,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8f…8cc2backed Yes40c3,609$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.095137.3%19 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes51c3,406$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.051942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes15c3,068$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.329935.4%35 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ab1…8807backed Yes62c2,427$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.671637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x921d…efb8backed Yes7c1,972$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.81922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No52c1,543$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.823228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No67c1,509$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.543444.1%15 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No47c1,470$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.183348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed No55c1,450$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,399$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.66372.7%1 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick8cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes23c1,375$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.6710438.5%40 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,334$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9522516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b82…7a36backed Yes57c1,182$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.91816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-69.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,032$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.36310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0664…d93ebacked No56c976.39$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.422100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+107.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes6c973.13$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf2…e31cbacked No58c959.04$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x141a…95a9backed Yes21c943.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.045156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No65c923$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c888.82$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.763116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No60c887.79$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.021758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes44c843.89$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.9311141.4%46 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf81…697dbacked No78c757.5$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x738e…827abacked No66c722.99$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+361.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes10c695.35$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked No55c690$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.179231.5%29 W · 63 L-12.7wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked No70c649.31$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.01966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed No56c629$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.167642.1%32 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a7…9ac3backed Yes16c624.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No80c583$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4941050.7%208 W · 202 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19c3…8525backed No54c573.66$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+153.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes53c539$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.521,05442.5%448 W · 606 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Yes45c522.11$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.95825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No44c514.56$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.672853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…ff90backed Yes43c513.82$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201910.5%2 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-76.1%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x844e…f5f6backed No58c513.14$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7db…6688backed Yes5c500.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4257…43bbbacked Yes45c477.34$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No49c455$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b41…e09bbacked Yes50c454.19$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes63c435.21$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.534245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…530abacked No57c424.04$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes43c413.52$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5533652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976e…ecf3backed No53c411.82$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.561163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb10a…5b24backed No55c410.51$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa29a…09c7backed Yes10c400.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.31156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes10c391.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9680…5f03backed Yes9c377.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…4a12backed Yes46c371.38$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes23c359.57$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.82911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-80.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes54c334.87$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.86110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd110…566cbacked Yes17c317.52$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1329160.4%55 W · 36 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1449553.7%51 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1329436.2%34 W · 60 L-13.1wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1569052.2%47 W · 43 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+46.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6080…3abebacked No36c293.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes9c286.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No78c263.39$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0eb…af1ebacked Yes11c246.59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4417227.3%47 W · 125 L-17.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes8c240.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes60c233.42$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.998339.8%33 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No43c231.88$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed No55c217.35$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4715245.4%69 W · 83 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd349…63f8backed Yes62c215.55$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.131560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6af9…d3b8backed No54c208$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed No56c200$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8945756.2%257 W · 200 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe680…1e2ebacked Yes58c194.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes25c182.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.922015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c162.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.677652.6%40 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c162.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9965721.9%144 W · 513 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-54.6%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No57c158.1$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.161,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0199…4e86backed Yes28c157.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.984146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes19c155.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.428749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes67c150$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.545447.8%217 W · 237 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed Yes70c149.48$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2821…399ebacked Yes8c140$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes50c139.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3442144.4%187 W · 234 L-28.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe78f…218ebacked No20c137.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.691520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3835…58adbacked Yes39c129.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes14c126.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…7e89backed Yes19c120$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ab…4135backed No51c110$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cc…ae8dbacked Yes14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No43c106.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6874054.5%403 W · 337 L+22.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked No72c104.27$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.251776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+92.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc9f7…229bbacked No80c100.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No71c100.14$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.171877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe64…873ebacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.332458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e07…1891backed Yes12c95.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7eb9…753fbacked No57c94.4$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5e…ff63backed Yes46c93.28$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No55c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcb67…5ea3backed Yes57c87.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.