TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cd6…18e4backed Yes41c14,267$5,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,872.14933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes21c9,528$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9759935.4%35 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x234e…240bbacked Yes23c5,970$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.984057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No67c3,837$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.082142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes45c3,233$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.2712438.7%48 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes14c2,706$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.051,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes29c2,170$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.2620137.8%76 W · 125 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No68c1,986$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.441656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x921d…efb8backed Yes19c1,664$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c1,527$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.78850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes18c1,499$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6810438.5%40 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes31c1,494$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.12,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c1,434$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.151546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c1,286$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.691662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No69c1,196$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.061546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No76c1,081$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2c…193abacked No72c1,001$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.63650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c944.67$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6622516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes7c906.4$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1770249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c849.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.08128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes9c793.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703444.1%15 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes9c642.28$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8127334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes19c542.18$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No53c487.19$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.49966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef7…fba9backed No42c462.56$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.553520%7 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No64c454.76$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.0331448.7%153 W · 161 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c450.77$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.566811.8%8 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed Yes52c445.81$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.582147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8f…8cc2backed Yes42c442.97$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.435137.3%19 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c49…8686backed Yes19c431.9$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…bdddbacked Yes18c418.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No55c417.09$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Yes10c399.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8745756.2%257 W · 200 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7389…0e94backed Yes18c391.58$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d2…abd5backed Yes3c356.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Yes19c350$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0718931.2%59 W · 130 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No61c340$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c328.02$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.557652.6%40 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0eb…af1ebacked Yes16c313.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9817227.3%47 W · 125 L-17.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes16c313.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.053228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x139b…2f75backed No69c290.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes16c283.78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.37372.7%1 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick8cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes14c280.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.48110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c276$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.521457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No51c274.63$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No62c267.58$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.44862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f6d…e7f1backed Yes45c267.01$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff30…80adbacked Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd349…63f8backed Yes13c260$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.311560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x976e…ecf3backed Yes22c257.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.551163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbeb2…f226backed Yes22c253.49$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.33318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-56.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Yes54c250.83$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.892050%10 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No52c248.98$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.483116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6080…3abebacked Yes13c240.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8f…3179backed Yes32c219.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes14c213.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes8c208$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6534538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No55c202$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.86966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No53c197.44$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.611070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes33c189$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No76c172.44$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.012458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f9…330ebacked Yes58c171.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Yes30c160.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.357642.1%32 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab1…8807backed Yes50c159.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.631637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes40c154$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2441050.7%208 W · 202 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad4a…c9b2backed Yes8c149$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No59c144.54$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.781154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff4…d735backed No31c144$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.341258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick27cpaid+110.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd727…7e41backed Yes19c134.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick45cpaid-80.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb651…2089backed No67c134.28$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.651637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes31c131.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.472441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes21c130.59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.151637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes32c129.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1765721.9%144 W · 513 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-54.6%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes16c123$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9640%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No57c119.42$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.38650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5cf…c503backed No59c110$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3213749.6%68 W · 69 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c103.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4560741%249 W · 358 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f17…39b1backed Yes25c100.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19c3…8525backed Yes39c97.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+153.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No74c95.62$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.491291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick73cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes12c92.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.051216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa185…6e8fbacked Yes54c91.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes30c91.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.971747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed No70c91.15$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.24520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-71.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No66c89.44$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d0…bf9dbacked Yes12c89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed No41c87.55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.07520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58f…106abacked Yes49c84.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x597a…5df0backed Yes26c80.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef71…4d85backed Yes38c80.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes46c76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9611141.4%46 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc239…6459backed Yes51c71.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.84333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a1…910bbacked Yes53c71.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19fc…8357backed No58c68.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5d…0270backed Yes30c67.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c80…faf6backed Yes37c65.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb549…c2b6backed Yes56c64.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.361643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No57c64.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.663565.7%23 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes50c60.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3a…82afbacked Yes19c59.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.171145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.