NHL · resolved market
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d1616688cd3d1a21532e66ba3c60d6295c6c7d455fc9c410dce0b692d4ab15f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae77…285abacked Yes | 5c | 2,675$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed Yes | 18c | 999.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked Yes | 1c | 942.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Yes | 8c | 725.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…34babacked Yes | 8c | 633.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…c9e9backed Yes | 2c | 623.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…ca41backed Yes | 13c | 575.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Yes | 20c | 490$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 477.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 7c | 434.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 80c | 400.01$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Yes | 7c | 385.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4838…0db9backed Yes | 6c | 382.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Yes | 28c | 349.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…ff90backed Yes | 18c | 301.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 7c | 293.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 27c | 228.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked Yes | 33c | 197.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbf…1103backed Yes | 11c | 189.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 185.32$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 180.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 172.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…5174backed Yes | 20c | 163.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…a34dbacked Yes | 19c | 132.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 21c | 129.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x597a…5df0backed Yes | 39c | 125.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 79c | 108.29$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…5f71backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 77.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 34c | 56.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 75c | 44.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 237 | 54%128 W · 109 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 75c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 39cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?this page
- Will Adam Nemec be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Alberts Smits be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Brooks Rogowski be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Carson Carels be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Chase Reid be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Viggo Björck be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.