Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c243a3a57e5803683521b035fb23199d09ceb0bcb75355d2cdb82c602ea8a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up | 1c | 4,523$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…60c5backed Up | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…3ff6backed Up | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 75c | 2,590$1,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.98 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 61c | 2,589$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.51 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…d061backed Up | 36c | 2,348$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.59 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 30c | 2,300$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.07 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Up | 18c | 1,876$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.91 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdccb…a7a0backed Up | 26c | 1,807$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Up | 12c | 1,607$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.35 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…dd94backed Up | 14c | 1,518$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 30c | 1,507$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.62 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Up | 17c | 1,229$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9289backed Up | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 37c | 1,154$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.38 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 16c | 973.5$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.61 | 357 | 50.4%180 W · 177 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 51c | 955.7$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.49 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 34c | 837.94$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.06 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 45c | 801.2$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.67 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 77c | 783.73$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.58 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed Up | 62c | 690$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Up | 7c | 637$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 68c | 598.48$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.61 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e42abacked Up | 44c | 556.3$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Up | 16c | 505.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47b…0adebacked Down | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Up | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…9017backed Up | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4cc7backed Up | 17c | 472.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Up | 21c | 418$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Down | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 60c | 390.73$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.65 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Up | 31c | 380.51$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 25c | 338.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…df53backed Down | 42c | 321.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.93 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 71c | 312.49$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Up | 44c | 302.76$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.21 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4016…4623backed Up | 42c | 301$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…e2b1backed Up | 42c | 301$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 21c | 278$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Up | 55c | 275$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Down | 78c | 274$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed Down | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…e2f3backed Up | 26c | 249.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…986abacked Up | 11c | 229.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 45c | 225$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed Down | 73c | 224$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…e05bbacked Up | 28c | 220.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 70c | 212.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Up | 22c | 209.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…a340backed Up | 46c | 204.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Up | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Up | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Down | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Down | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Up | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…9ff8backed Up | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Down | 72c | 195.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Up | 48c | 192$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…27b4backed Down | 77c | 181.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed Up | 47c | 177$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Up | 53c | 175$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Up | 55c | 161$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…9328backed Up | 12c | 160.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Up | 24c | 138.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…41b8backed Up | 69c | 113$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…2551backed Up | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Up | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…8080backed Up | 28c | 103$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Up | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Up | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf62…f385backed Up | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…c7e6backed Down | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4e7bbacked Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Up | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…b959backed Up | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e3…daa6backed Up | 14c | 76.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +183.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…f929backed Up | 64c | 75.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Up | 30c | 68.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…e55dbacked Up | 53c | 61.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c78…79a7backed Up | 30c | 50.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…558bbacked Down | 80c | 50.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Down | 48c | 46.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 46c | 46.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Up | 52c | 42.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed Down | 75c | 37.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Down | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbb…f6d8backed Up | 43c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Down | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Down | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Down | 71c | 25.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed Down | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Up | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Up | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af3…2360backed Down | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.