NBA · resolved market
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Toronto Raptors?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01fda361ef115d3888e21aa98426f63acfc3fa17322ed6ecaa182430db0744e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 0c | 5,903$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b7…ee17backed Yes | 4c | 4,239$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 4c | 3,980$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…8239backed Yes | 0c | 3,430$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 2,780$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 2,741$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…b6a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,837$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…e131backed Yes | 6c | 1,812$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 1c | 1,725$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,666$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2005backed Yes | 2c | 1,471$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,406$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,134$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 915.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…13d9backed Yes | 1c | 887.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…5ad8backed Yes | 6c | 866.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 717.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 2c | 562.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 469.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Yes | 5c | 468.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 442.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 5c | 435$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…6c8bbacked Yes | 5c | 385.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 5c | 304$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Yes | 8c | 262.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…0badbacked Yes | 8c | 252.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce87…2f3fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Toronto Raptors?this page
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Charlotte Hornets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Chicago Bulls?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Cleveland Cavaliers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Minnesota Timberwolves?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Philadelphia 76ers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Atlanta Hawks?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Detroit Pistons?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Houston Rockets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Los Angeles Lakers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the San Antonio Spurs?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.