NBA · resolved market
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Chicago Bulls?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceed4bdc0e162cdcd109e67e00a7adcac4f00c66afc8d63a32d03ca421a12634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Yes | 10c | 60,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 10c | 24,003$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.79 | 815 | 29.4%240 W · 575 L | -37.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 16,737$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.87 | 98 | 4.1%4 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 11c | 15,466$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 6c | 15,006$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.82 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 5c | 6,973$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.87 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 6c | 4,717$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.01 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…da92backed Yes | 12c | 3,321$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes | 3c | 2,836$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,595$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.25 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 2,400$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 1c | 2,178$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…754cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,166$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85af…a6ebbacked Yes | 4c | 2,119$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd21e…1803backed Yes | 11c | 2,051$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…a8e4backed Yes | 3c | 1,827$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 6c | 1,763$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…d7c8backed Yes | 11c | 1,725$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 1,598$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb321…6603backed Yes | 7c | 1,416$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,373$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 76 | 22.4%17 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e8…a7bdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,221$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -87%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,119$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed Yes | 13c | 1,060$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.31 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee47…9263backed Yes | 23c | 1,049$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba6…ad01backed Yes | 6c | 1,035$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,017$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…5a06backed Yes | 13c | 764.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa748…2dc4backed Yes | 14c | 691.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d81…20c3backed Yes | 15c | 684.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Yes | 5c | 635$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…13d9backed Yes | 3c | 626.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 6c | 579.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 7c | 575.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 572.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 6c | 503.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 502.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1497…b7bfbacked Yes | 8c | 474.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 472.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 460.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Yes | 7c | 445.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4d…6103backed Yes | 3c | 426.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 388.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 1cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd597…beb7backed Yes | 4c | 354.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes | 14c | 296.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ac…913abacked Yes | 7c | 274.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d4…415ebacked Yes | 9c | 263.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…497bbacked Yes | 6c | 234$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 8c | 196.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…e8e1backed Yes | 7c | 187.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…705ebacked Yes | 9c | 175.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9050…0a7abacked Yes | 9c | 172.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 183 | 54.1%99 W · 84 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…caf1backed Yes | 13c | 150.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6708…90a3backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…c3b3backed Yes | 10c | 144.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19a…3808backed Yes | 14c | 138.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421c…6fa3backed Yes | 13c | 127$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…6d55backed Yes | 14c | 108.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Chicago Bulls?this page
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Charlotte Hornets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Cleveland Cavaliers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Minnesota Timberwolves?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Philadelphia 76ers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Atlanta Hawks?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Detroit Pistons?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Houston Rockets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Los Angeles Lakers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the San Antonio Spurs?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Toronto Raptors?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.