NBA · resolved market
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the San Antonio Spurs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30e22e861aa56b3b8806098dc32f5913a8e9d7967be3f5bbac24505d995f59ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 0c | 16,687$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,840$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 0c | 3,963$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 3,799$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 15c | 2,394$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.99 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 2,356$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,272$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,317$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 13c | 1,006$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.27 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…973cbacked Yes | 15c | 661.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 55.4%77 W · 62 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd9…1ed9backed Yes | 17c | 591.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 15c | 556$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 554.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked Yes | 18c | 530$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Yes | 19c | 500.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…45d4backed Yes | 16c | 432.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes | 16c | 400.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6c…7de7backed Yes | 16c | 319.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 20c | 311.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Yes | 17c | 293.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 12c | 287.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 10c | 275.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed No | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed No | 80c | 210.8$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Yes | 17c | 183.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…9907backed No | 80c | 142$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…9195backed Yes | 13c | 127.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9432…42a3backed Yes | 14c | 113.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…f52cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8d…cd06backed Yes | 21c | 65.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…cfb4backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6db8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…2b8dbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the San Antonio Spurs?this page
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Charlotte Hornets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Chicago Bulls?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Cleveland Cavaliers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Minnesota Timberwolves?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Philadelphia 76ers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Atlanta Hawks?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Detroit Pistons?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Houston Rockets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Los Angeles Lakers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Toronto Raptors?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.