TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 159.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,098 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under52c45,724$23,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,612.624348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2537…bff9backed Over46c30,563$14,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,363.4344452.7%234 W · 210 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Over48c10,500$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4601145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…9742backed Under54c9,999$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.633956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over48c9,338$4,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,873.232,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over49c6,280$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,202.84540%18 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.9910739.3%42 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Over51c2,967$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.6712344.7%55 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c2,914$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.1112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Under49c2,903$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.4540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over51c2,610$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.8113343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over49c2,000$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.652,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Over47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.984353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over48c1,617$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.2290645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over47c1,399$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.451,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Over51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49011542.6%49 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Over49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42d0…77e2backed Over51c991.25$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.713751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x128a…a1b0backed Over50c991.25$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.632250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ed…d4b2backed Over50c948.42$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.212454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over47c897.97$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.931,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Under53c616.92$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.5918048.9%88 W · 92 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…4048backed Under50c578.34$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.172035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Over47c526.11$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.848548.2%41 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Over48c520$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.46147.5%29 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Under50c470.94$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4716341.7%68 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over46c438.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.8993941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over47c356.62$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.0118744.9%84 W · 103 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Under53c330.89$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.375350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Under53c308.68$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.610458.7%61 W · 43 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over48c268.65$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.771,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over47c262.7$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.145,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Over49c252.35$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.710443.3%45 W · 59 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa59…75ecbacked Over51c244.4$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8714346.9%67 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aff…da59backed Over48c229.23$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.24146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…ff07backed Under51c212.78$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-62.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9d8…f8afbacked Over50c203.89$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.95450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a9e…ba25backed Under50c203.54$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10082846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x803b…3134backed Under50c199.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over47c198.26$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0838837.6%146 W · 242 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf08…f17ebacked Over50c193.18$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cbb…a912backed Over51c192.58$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.36580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+54.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80ff…439ebacked Under51c180.81$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.22520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-64.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ee0…6b74backed Over50c178.08$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc378…c05abacked Under51c172.83$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x206c…4f34backed Under51c172.78$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4383…3d32backed Over50c166.11$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aef…ccfbbacked Under51c165.3$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa9…59c8backed Over51c163.32$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.03666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…7a08backed Over50c158.07$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa538…d3b0backed Under51c154.84$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.97520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7287…6d9abacked Over51c153.4$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.16425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over47c149$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9750548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a09…06aabacked Over50c134.43$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0151…adf6backed Under50c130.9$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Over48c123.91$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.431172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+58%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf12e…7939backed Over49c113.14$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.73748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc494…36c9backed Over50c111.28$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.645100%5 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+135%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5421455.6%119 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Over46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under53c99.13$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5462451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over47c99.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.541,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over50c99.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5620254.5%110 W · 92 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under54c98.96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9729650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over48c96.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3550745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d20…5b7abacked Over51c94.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Under54c94.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5521850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0e…691dbacked Under50c93.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.861127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed Over47c90.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.811546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f4…7655backed Under51c87.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick58cpaid-68.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04e5…070fbacked Under51c77.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.651127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over47c75.06$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4833058.2%192 W · 138 L+24.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16dc…72edbacked Under50c70.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedcc…6211backed Over50c64.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+50.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f60…68d8backed Under51c62.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ed…96e1backed Over48c61.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.227162%44 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under49c61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8952843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa23c…ae92backed Under50c59.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.743735.1%13 W · 24 L-7.1wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-33.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Under54c55.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.749554.7%52 W · 43 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Over51c53.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.233551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over48c51.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.848551.1%248 W · 237 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4a…4fb5backed Under53c46.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.787459.5%44 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bba…6596backed Over47c42.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.354055%22 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Over48c41.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6530050.7%152 W · 148 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Over48c41.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6524148.5%117 W · 124 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Over48c41.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6532850%164 W · 164 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb983…b815backed Over50c41.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x531d…b6b2backed Under51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9882…3e70backed Over50c39.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Over47c39.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.025354.7%29 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe9…dc0abacked Under50c39.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd927…9875backed Under51c39.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x934c…d02bbacked Over47c39.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.794156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedd0…d1e9backed Under51c38.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0138…8451backed Under52c37.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832524%6 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-48.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4cc…86bdbacked Over50c36.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3a6…6e3fbacked Over47c35.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.12944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Over47c34.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.35954.2%32 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under55c33.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4215252.6%80 W · 72 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.