Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f1098418eae3773f9771ac6c0ad2db7cae089321148346390591a33c1213123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Razorbacksof Arkansas Razorbacks, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,647 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 10,181$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956.28 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 3,509$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.5 | 251 | 45.8%115 W · 136 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 3,432$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.44 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 51c | 3,200$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 2,316$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.4 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 2,275$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 1,896$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.19 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 1,138$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.85 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 1,080$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.75 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 55c | 540.28$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 51c | 404.28$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.18 | 127 | 49.6%63 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 297.38$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 283.11$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 239$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.11 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…e1a1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…6c84backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 55c | 178.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 142.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 141.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 118.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 51c | 87.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 49.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 46.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 29.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb9…92d7backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 48c | 23.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 51c | 19.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-14.5)this page
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 158.5Over won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 159.5Over won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 160.5Over won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 173.5Over won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 175.5Under won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 176.5Under won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 178.5Under won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 179.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-15.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-16.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-17.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-18.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-19.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-20.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-21.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.