TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-16.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arkansas Razorbacksof Arkansas Razorbacks, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,040 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors36c847.89$305 inLost-$305.334,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Arkansas Razorbacks63c637.2$403 inWon+$234.071540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…74a8backed Arkansas Razorbacks61c592.64$361 inWon+$231.598444%37 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Arkansas Razorbacks55c304.84$168 inWon+$136.432,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors38c193.39$73 inLost-$73.4923149.8%115 W · 116 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors41c173.95$72 inLost-$72.1952843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors43c167.04$72 inLost-$71.8312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors34c111.4$38 inLost-$37.6234343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8af9…c3e8backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors50c49.56$25 inLost-$24.785358.5%31 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors39c30$12 inLost-$11.833445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.