Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 158.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc978d8531ae2f9d3011d5e7fcaad1ee5fdfb06917430ae62f99d2e6bacfe8ba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 3,966$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.41 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 50c | 2,288$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.9 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 51c | 1,258$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.51 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Under | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 47c | 1,004$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.02 | 131 | 41.2%54 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 935.77$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.53 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 31c | 638.86$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.15 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 72c | 598.46$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.59 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 450.51$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.51 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 73c | 322.46$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 318 | 37.7%120 W · 198 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 297.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…9c8dbacked Under | 52c | 285.94$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 52c | 285.94$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.25 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…cf99backed Under | 6c | 249.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…8a16backed Under | 9c | 221.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 46c | 188.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…0562backed Under | 35c | 113.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 51c | 68.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Over | 49c | 61.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 51c | 58.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 35.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 35.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Under | 50c | 28.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Over | 74c | 28.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 72c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 158.5this page
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 159.5Over won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 160.5Over won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 173.5Over won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 175.5Under won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 176.5Under won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 178.5Under won
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 179.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-14.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-15.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-16.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-17.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-18.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-19.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-20.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-21.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.