TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 160.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,978 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ec1…057cbacked Under58c30,790$17,846 inLost-$17,846.498957.3%51 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Over44c12,365$5,490 inWon+$6,874.8941752.5%219 W · 198 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over42c9,203$3,869 inWon+$5,333.8212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2537…bff9backed Over43c6,594$2,835 inWon+$3,758.4644452.7%234 W · 210 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under5c3,988$195 inLost-$194.835,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over43c1,954$831 inWon+$1,123.442,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over45c1,504$675 inWon+$828.841,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under54c550.73$297 inLost-$297.3916253.1%86 W · 76 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Under57c438.57$248 inLost-$248.076147.5%29 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed Under4c374.5$15 inLost-$14.982556%14 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over48c289.12$139 inWon+$150.341,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…74a8backed Under58c247.87$144 inLost-$143.768444%37 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed Under52c200$104 inLost-$10420642.7%88 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over42c169.17$71 inWon+$98.121,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Over43c115.28$50 inWon+$65.713177.4%24 W · 7 L+7.0wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+46.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Under52c91.67$48 inLost-$47.6712344.7%55 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5142…ee20backed Under59c90.99$54 inLost-$53.682653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Over44c56.33$25 inWon+$31.5415252.6%80 W · 72 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5127…f137backed Under53c46.76$25 inLost-$24.786841.2%28 W · 40 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under56c29.69$17 inLost-$16.7733058.2%192 W · 138 L+24.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x08d1…28adbacked Under57c26.03$15 inLost-$14.845944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under47c22$10 inLost-$10.2852843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x524f…bcbdbacked Under59c18.44$11 inLost-$10.881118.2%2 W · 9 L-4.1wins-0.37per pick55cpaid-68.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.