NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 7 or after?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a6f3b7ea6ffecfcd8ef369001b404b6a0117ee0926e2940136c3582997bd92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f71…1016backed No | 8c | 2,278$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 1,895$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 1,208$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 7c | 984.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…be17backed No | 24c | 401.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +117%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 10c | 387.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…691dbacked No | 6c | 377.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 8c | 333$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 8c | 330$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 202.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 201$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Yes | 74c | 145.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 76c | 122.54$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 103.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…466abacked Yes | 80c | 93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 20c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 23c | 90.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…c07ebacked Yes | 72c | 73.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 77c | 67.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed Yes | 43c | 56.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 43c | 51.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…a874backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…58e7backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…2a2cbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 43c | 32.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 7 or after?this page
- Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 2?No won
- Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?No won
- Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 5?No won
- Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.