Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce185cfe1cf4d0931fc6369e91923ce55f912ce0a1e19cdc43c5ea565abf921
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 40c | 1,675$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.99 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 54c | 1,502$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.07 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 1,199$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes | 31c | 957.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 70c | 749.97$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.16 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 44c | 668.58$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.79 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 29c | 637.59$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.17 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 609.34$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 78c | 489.96$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 482.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.17 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 37c | 457.07$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 62c | 441.14$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.24 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 404.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 375.7$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 14c | 367.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.56 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 10c | 356.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.72 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 339.59$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 68c | 336.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 325.56$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 301.61$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 37c | 271.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.14 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 269$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 34c | 260$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 40c | 253.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 12c | 247.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.21 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 244.05$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 60c | 241.29$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 29c | 233.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 31c | 231.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.69 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 78c | 230.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 226.27$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 20c | 218.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 214.43$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.58 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 49c | 212.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 27c | 210.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.98 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 22c | 199.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.93 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 80c | 190.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 38c | 189.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 174.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 165.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked No | 77c | 161$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 17c | 160.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 159$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 33c | 157.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 32c | 156.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 16c | 156.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 16c | 156.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 30c | 156.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.69 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 37c | 148.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 138.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 59c | 130.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…e027backed Yes | 43c | 130$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 128.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 127.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked No | 25c | 121.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 24c | 120.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 59c | 119.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 70c | 119.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 78c | 118.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 26c | 116.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 116.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 115.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 18c | 113.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 53c | 113.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 13c | 112.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 31c | 111.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 14c | 110.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 24c | 109.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 107.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 103.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed Yes | 35c | 103$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 103$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 15c | 102.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa71b…a060backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…38aebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb3…9ed6backed No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 36c | 95.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 36c | 95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 21c | 94.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes | 13c | 94.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 47c | 89.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 40c | 87.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 58c | 86.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 12c | 86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 27c | 83.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 75c | 79.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 28c | 73.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…3bb3backed Yes | 21c | 71.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 69c | 70.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.