TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,951 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes40c1,675$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.9942130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes54c1,502$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.0734624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No45c1,199$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.454,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes31c957.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.121838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No70c749.97$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.1629345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes44c668.58$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.7931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes29c637.59$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.1756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c609.34$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9522…7af0backed Yes78c489.96$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.672020%4 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-58.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes15c482.7$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.171,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes37c457.07$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes62c441.14$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.2431649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes10c404.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c375.7$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.675,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes14c367.24$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.561,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes10c356.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.7235232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c339.59$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.294,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes68c336.57$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2727079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No49c325.56$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.881,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c301.61$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.393,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes37c271.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.146053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c269$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.495,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes34c260$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.811337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No40c253.7$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5112762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes12c247.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.219425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes46c244.05$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.855,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes60c241.29$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2312941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No29c233.46$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6944659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes31c231.84$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.6919123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes78c230.94$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8925742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No64c226.27$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.842,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes20c218.08$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.442231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c214.43$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.582,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c2…792dbacked Yes49c212.44$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.872245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes27c210.31$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.065427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c38…83d0backed Yes15c199.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.985024%12 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes22c199.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.934037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes80c190.91$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.398667.4%58 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes38c189.62$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.95944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c174.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No71c165.19$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.441,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b60…558dbacked No77c161$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.362576%19 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No17c160.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5639159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes32c160$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.813424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c159$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.694,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No33c157.2$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8546626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x258b…db84backed Yes32c156.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.25728.1%16 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes16c156.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.211216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92f…acacbacked Yes16c156.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.215714%8 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes30c156.11$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.698947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No37c148.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.491,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes32c138.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.573,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes59c130.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4312228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbab9…e027backed Yes43c130$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.721457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c128.53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.229,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c127.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.641,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked No25c121.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.427729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes24c120.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.055729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes59c119.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5234151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No70c119.18$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.541,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb218…6261backed No78c118.21$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.26850%34 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes26c116.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c116.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.221,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c115.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.277,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes18c113.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes53c113.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1510053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes13c112.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.340025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes31c111.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5341046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes14c110.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4323743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes24c109.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes27c109$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5727335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No70c107.34$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.12,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No51c103.9$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.472,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa056…0f70backed Yes35c103$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+186.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c103$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.483,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes15c102.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6361249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa71b…a060backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7440%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f55…38aebacked No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb3…9ed6backed No72c99.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.98560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc38…eef3backed Yes37c99.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.988833%29 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes36c95.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.329439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes36c95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.052138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes21c94.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes13c94.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.831947.4%9 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+142.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No33c90$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0439966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No47c89.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.021,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes40c87.77$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.773737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes58c86.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7952935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes12c86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6827421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes27c83.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.049744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9529740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.23,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x036d…e888backed No75c79.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.547871.8%56 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes35c75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6146452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes28c73.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb13…3bb3backed Yes21c71.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No69c70.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6216968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.