TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes0c14,504$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.555729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes5c2,269$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1957614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes39c639.88$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes20c608.4$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c559.04$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No67c494.58$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c394.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.951,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes6c353.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes4c349.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes4c333.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1318845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes15c310.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2619123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes12c300$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes8c299.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2428718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c281.41$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.458,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c273.17$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.31,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes5c270$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.221,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes7c259.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.881,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No64c241.18$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.139966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes27c227.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.916030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes10c221.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9716144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes38c214$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.672,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes6c204.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.915,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9129345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64f6…15a2backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10817.4%6 W · 75 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c199.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.982,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes15c196.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07fd…54c7backed Yes32c194.67$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.751546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes7c180.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c160.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes27c155$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.155427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No73c151.88$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes24c147.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes38c138.28$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.721,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes9c136.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.793,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18ef…e590backed Yes14c132.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18355.7%2 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes9c130$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.794919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes26c125.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6437835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes13c122.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.282231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c5…07ffbacked Yes30c101.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a0…63a4backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4312941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc38…eef3backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.068833%29 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd92f…acacbacked Yes25c99.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255714%8 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No62c93.92$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.322,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes12c90.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.559744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes27c88.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.066719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x923f…6c4abacked Yes45c86.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.587346.6%34 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c84.76$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.744,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes26c77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9440025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4371…0511backed Yes22c68.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c65.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.817,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.59,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes24c61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4914926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No77c60.69$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.316234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9107…b6e0backed No73c58.32$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.75666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5612962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd763…bd7fbacked No74c53.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.761764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes29c50.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8315843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1954867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1325042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65bf…17c9backed Yes42c47.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c45.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.387,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No55c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.171464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes43c44.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.053129%9 W · 22 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf794…aba2backed Yes24c42.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.332152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes29c41.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9c1…be67backed No70c41.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.363488.2%30 W · 4 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick67cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No77c41.06$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4434970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No57c40.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.492,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.839427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.217570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes27c38.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4744536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes43c37.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8756131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No73c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.427771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed No67c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.575944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7851631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No62c26.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1417071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No74c26.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.781,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.754,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No49c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.024,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.452155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c17.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.074,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No67c15.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2731866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No79c15.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1982562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No80c14.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9316159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.