Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d5e0eb2478c985387ca30e19c91c239322ba190eec179606d3f5109df55a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,504$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 5c | 2,269$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes | 39c | 639.88$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 20c | 608.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 559.04$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 494.58$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.9 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 394.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 353.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 4c | 349.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 4c | 333.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 310.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 281.41$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 273.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 5c | 270$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 259.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 64c | 241.18$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 27c | 227.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 10c | 221.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 214$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 204.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 199.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes | 15c | 196.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…54c7backed Yes | 32c | 194.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 7c | 180.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 160.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 27c | 155$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 151.88$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 24c | 147.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 138.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 136.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 14c | 132.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 125.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes | 13c | 122.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c5…07ffbacked Yes | 30c | 101.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 93.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 12c | 90.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 27c | 88.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 45c | 86.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 84.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 22c | 68.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 65.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 24c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 60.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…b6e0backed No | 73c | 58.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 74c | 53.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 50.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…17c9backed Yes | 42c | 47.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 45.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 43c | 44.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf794…aba2backed Yes | 24c | 42.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 29c | 41.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 70c | 41.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 41.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 40.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 27c | 38.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 37.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 62c | 26.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 26.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 67c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 80c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.