TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes1c14,953$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.135729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes49c1,237$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes26c708.83$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbf…0771backed Yes7c691.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.27205%1 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+66.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes17c591.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.941838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c556$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.195,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Yes63c550$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.251040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked No53c538.94$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.83435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed No59c536.56$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.4723743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No70c495.18$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bd5…7fd7backed Yes2c494.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes18c484.55$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes5c381.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.332,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab0…9578backed No52c351.2$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.574032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No72c332.1$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.821,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c312$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.864,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c302.85$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.494,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c300.94$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed No68c273.71$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.795944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No54c265.61$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.614065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No61c256.47$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.232,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No68c254.7$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.512762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No48c249.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.495158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No50c246$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.043,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes36c244.35$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.835,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c225.52$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.418,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No62c223.4$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.81,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No50c214$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.633,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c212.46$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No69c209.65$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8444659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes30c209.08$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9946626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes47c207.72$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.031,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No61c204.48$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.891,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9229345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed No48c198.37$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.13745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No54c193.85$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d44…e684backed Yes51c192.51$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.461241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes42c191.35$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No73c191.23$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.91866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes43c189$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.622,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes53c186.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.651,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb674…e97abacked Yes50c180.08$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.7wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-58.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes48c179.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.245427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4371…0511backed Yes42c176.76$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No64c175.52$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.862,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9522…7af0backed Yes40c175.13$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.712020%4 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-58.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes45c173.11$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.92,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes10c169.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1729732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes39c160$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7815843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8aae…36abbacked Yes59c160$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f10…9059backed Yes63c159.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No64c148.34$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.81,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes30c148.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0812941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No30c140$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9828737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c137.15$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.565,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes55c134.12$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4211337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.882,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes40c125.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes39c125$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c124.3$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.564,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes39c123.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4818534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes41c122.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No48c118$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.322,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c117.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.062,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes47c114.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes49c113.92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes13c110.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…b978backed Yes20c109.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.783023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed No47c109.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.996053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8682…15a9backed Yes55c109.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.771250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes50c109.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.11637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No39c107.34$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.92,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes60c105$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.512638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes37c105$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.952138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x258b…db84backed Yes46c104.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.975728.1%16 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c103.72$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.972,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a35…3a72backed Yes11c102.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes45c100.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.953935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5076…e15dbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc38…eef3backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.58833%29 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.461,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a91…983fbacked Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.913942.4%59 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1896…0f63backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes51c96.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5519123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35af…8e95backed No56c88.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.947762.3%48 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes46c87.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.816030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes39c87.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3111835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No57c87.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.552,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…7c77backed Yes70c85.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbbe…e906backed Yes25c85.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3383360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf9a…371abacked Yes48c82.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c82.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.917,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No46c82.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3511038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes41c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8229740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes45c78.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked No61c76.5$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07fd…54c7backed Yes47c72.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.