Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e5a0a55afcb8c929c31ab55e50e4497fbc48e253f6219d0e874552f4facb6a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 18c | 815.51$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 70c | 762.76$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.87 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 732.96$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.34 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 17c | 705.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 31c | 690.02$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.43 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 42c | 505.75$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.25 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 457.67$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 451.92$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 446$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 413.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 399$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 386.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 7c | 378.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 29c | 304.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.95 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 25c | 299.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.49 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 29c | 280.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.35 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 279.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 274.84$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 28c | 265.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.55 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 29c | 257.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.81 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 245$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 227.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 218$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 54c | 172.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 34c | 163.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 24c | 159.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.08 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 62c | 158.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 153.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 32c | 151$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 24c | 144.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 142.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 32c | 140.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 64c | 140.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed No | 30c | 138.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 137$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 134.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 25c | 132.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 130.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 130.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 124.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 117.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 105.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 14c | 104.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 103.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 18c | 101.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 71c | 98.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 79c | 97.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 92.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 89.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 69c | 87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 41c | 86.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 86.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 24c | 86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 84.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 23c | 82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked No | 79c | 81.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 37c | 81.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…557abacked Yes | 24c | 79.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 78.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 26c | 78.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…2719backed Yes | 26c | 75.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 68c | 73.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 21c | 71.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 69.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 74c | 67.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…a311backed No | 79c | 66.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fe…5af0backed No | 75c | 66.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…6da5backed Yes | 28c | 66.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 76c | 66.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 19c | 65.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 18c | 65.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…883abacked Yes | 30c | 62.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7827…a351backed Yes | 34c | 61.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 25c | 60.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 26c | 59.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…c8d2backed Yes | 35c | 57.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 78c | 53.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 21c | 53.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 52.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 52.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 25c | 51.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…4c72backed Yes | 35c | 51.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…e027backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…9457backed Yes | 36c | 48.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…cab6backed Yes | 29c | 47.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.