TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,313

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf37…993fbacked No18c815.51$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8965625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes70c762.76$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8727079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes32c732.96$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.3495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No17c705.56$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.12,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes31c690.02$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.439634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes42c505.75$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.2557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No55c457.67$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.984,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No69c451.92$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.213,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c446$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c413.39$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c399$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.975,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c386.99$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.72,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No7c378.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.691,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes29c304.54$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.9530813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes25c299.98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.4929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb527…903dbacked Yes29c280.42$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.352326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c279.87$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.477,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No71c274.84$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes28c265.96$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.5586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes29c257.92$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No78c245$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.723,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes23c227.52$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.141,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c218$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.624,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes70c200$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7515843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No54c172.71$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.141,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes34c163.56$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.949932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes24c159.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0820534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes62c158.58$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0918567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c153.93$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.555,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes32c151$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2720144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c150$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.761,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbad…8426backed Yes17c147.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.053938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes24c144.23$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1342754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes21c142.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7286226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes32c140.56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6431124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes64c140.42$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4254154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3087…5250backed No30c138.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.131921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-56.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No60c137$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.423,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes23c134.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.095,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes25c132.68$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9734533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No77c130.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No30c130.03$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.722,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes28c124.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.491,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c117.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c105.88$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.539,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes14c104.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0115717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No71c103.57$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6288973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes18c101.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1927421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No71c98.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0837669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ee…983cbacked No79c97.08$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777152.1%37 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes20c92.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.211,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No79c89.44$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.271,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…ae9bbacked No69c87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.876660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes41c86.26$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2618534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c86.13$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes24c86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.946227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes30c84.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.981,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3314040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes23c82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1319037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked No79c81.78$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.354037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes37c81.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.228234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738c…557abacked Yes24c79.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c78.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes26c78.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.089425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7539…2719backed Yes26c75.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No68c73.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5839159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes21c71.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.178337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No69c69.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7433567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No74c67.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75f…a311backed No79c66.52$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02fe…5af0backed No75c66.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccc6…6da5backed Yes28c66.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No76c66.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes19c65.66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4852533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No18c65.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.731,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2105…883abacked Yes30c62.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes34c61.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.463740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes25c60.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4410059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes26c59.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.686719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8924…c8d2backed Yes35c57.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.16450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+54.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No78c53.9$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0139158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes21c53.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.141046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No75c52.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7250860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No64c52.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes25c51.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.668920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd629…4c72backed Yes35c51.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.321533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No78c51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7834970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes23c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6516437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab9…e027backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x649f…fd8dbacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-36.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes33c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2934457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No64c49.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd56e…9457backed Yes36c48.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.91560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No62c48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.768257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a32…cab6backed Yes29c47.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.97450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.