Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91d27cfdf1c4aa94935eca4303d4d6666d150b8165416ac570eb1bac35c16dc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2291…b0c9backed Yes | 0c | 14,531$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 7c | 821.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 11c | 540.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 23c | 480.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 384.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 363.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 20c | 318.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 311.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 297$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 11c | 263.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 221.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 21c | 219.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 202.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 15c | 201.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…dc20backed No | 79c | 199.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 9c | 190.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 22c | 183.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 18c | 176.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 11c | 175.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 12c | 164.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 14c | 162.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 147.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…3aecbacked Yes | 21c | 145.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 15c | 115.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 114.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…0654backed Yes | 20c | 113.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 12c | 111.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 17c | 110.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 10c | 105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 14c | 104.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…df90backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 19c | 99.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e8…fc2dbacked Yes | 20c | 97.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 19c | 94.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 16c | 93.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 87.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 82.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 21c | 81.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed Yes | 20c | 71.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 28c | 70.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…e65bbacked Yes | 14c | 69.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes | 16c | 60.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35d…5df9backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 21c | 57.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 80c | 56.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 50.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 78c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 77c | 45.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 77c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…5910backed No | 76c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…65cfbacked No | 73c | 23.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 79c | 20.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 78c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 80c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.