TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,507

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,921 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes0c27,624$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504060%24 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xccc6…6da5backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc789…10fdbacked Yes0c6,030$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.091827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick12cpaid+2,066.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c1,711$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.221389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes58c1,381$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a75…ff13backed Yes8c1,118$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476d…ceecbacked Yes1c997.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9118615.6%29 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Yes10c800$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802532%8 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c695.53$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.724,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No31c554.32$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.769634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes46c469.93$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2155427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes43c418.61$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0945238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No43c394.51$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.85158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes38c345.97$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.422,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No74c330.22$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes54c317$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3214043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No48c310.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes73c305.06$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.621,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No51c300.82$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb833…3cf8backed Yes76c300$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes52c296.53$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.551,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c280$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.765,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No37c277.78$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.7857614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes52c263.59$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5713160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No43c244.76$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1883459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes62c237.32$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.091,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes52c219.34$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes64c218.35$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7923436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No45c199.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11049646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No41c196.19$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3865625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No65c193.58$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb527…903dbacked Yes68c190.8$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.022326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c188.46$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.682,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No66c188.02$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6442160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No51c177$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes35c175$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.259425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No45c174.58$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.378,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes50c161.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.15547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c161.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes33c160.74$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.949932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes63c158$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9817135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No45c156.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.422,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No39c156.02$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.983,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes52c152.77$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes49c149.21$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked No66c145$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.118239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x649f…fd8dbacked No31c143.8$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.672821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-36.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No42c139.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.433,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b98…925ebacked No40c132.97$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7813842.8%59 W · 79 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+164.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No42c130.04$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4234624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes47c128.88$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4511331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.92,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes49c126.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e0d…9bbdbacked Yes57c121$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.371250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f05…9b05backed Yes80c115.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.373727%10 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b8…e0d5backed Yes57c113.28$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed No47c109.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.81770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes35c109.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.391,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No45c109$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1551553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes48c106.41$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c105.09$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.632,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes60c100.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2194066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643540%14 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3227669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…d0d3backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8515717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161c…75fabacked Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba47…df90backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3087…5250backed No37c99.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.181921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-56.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No67c99.38$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc527…773dbacked Yes50c99.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes52c98.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7820534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes53c94.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No43c93.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.042,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c92.02$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No52c89.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.991,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes42c86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.986227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes62c84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1720144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No60c83.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3483360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.653,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9324539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No45c77$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.013,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f5…2260backed Yes27c75.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No38c75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3638258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked No44c74.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9224442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No42c70.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.734533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No44c69.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.241258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No53c69.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.544,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fb…427abacked No41c67.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.62742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes57c66.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7639427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e93…be55backed Yes57c64.47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.751070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4f7…64e4backed Yes48c63.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes57c63.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1131124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No66c62.17$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No46c61.81$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1939157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes47c60.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.22,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.231,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.