Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa19b97956cf5ddc30b1cc852e39e9b0f5a87452e190872df508d12fd5ab1815a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 0c | 27,624$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…6da5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…10fdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,030$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +2,066.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,711$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,381$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 8c | 1,118$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 1c | 997.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 695.53$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 31c | 554.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.76 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 46c | 469.93$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 418.61$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.09 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 43c | 394.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 345.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 74c | 330.22$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 54c | 317$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.32 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 48c | 310.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 73c | 305.06$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.62 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 300.82$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb833…3cf8backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 52c | 296.53$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 280$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 37c | 277.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.78 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 52c | 263.59$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 244.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.18 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 62c | 237.32$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.09 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 52c | 219.34$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 64c | 218.35$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 41c | 196.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 193.58$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 68c | 190.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 188.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 188.02$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 177$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 35c | 175$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 174.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 50c | 161.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 161.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 33c | 160.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 63c | 158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 156.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 156.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 152.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 49c | 149.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 66c | 145$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked No | 31c | 143.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 42c | 139.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 40c | 132.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 42c | 130.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 47c | 128.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 49c | 126.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0d…9bbdbacked Yes | 57c | 121$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 80c | 115.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b8…e0d5backed Yes | 57c | 113.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 109.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 45c | 109$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 48c | 106.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 105.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 60c | 100.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9a…d0d3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…75fabacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…df90backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed No | 37c | 99.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 99.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc527…773dbacked Yes | 50c | 99.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 52c | 98.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 53c | 94.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 93.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 92.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 89.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 42c | 86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 62c | 84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 83.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…2260backed Yes | 27c | 75.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 44c | 74.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 42c | 70.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 44c | 69.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 69.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…427abacked No | 41c | 67.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 57c | 66.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed Yes | 57c | 64.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f7…64e4backed Yes | 48c | 63.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 57c | 63.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 66c | 62.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 46c | 61.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 47c | 60.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.