Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c115a00e7d6020859caac2c47d24d97e6d78d4b6ca5996649b38218a7ff3e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,779$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…01cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,859$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 76c | 1,377$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.29 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 66c | 1,182$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.8 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 67c | 749.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.65 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 657.11$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 467.17$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 445.29$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.44 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…4325backed Yes | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 393.32$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 353.4$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 3c | 343.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 32c | 328.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 281.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 276.36$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 274.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.39 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 46c | 262.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 33c | 255.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.41 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 246.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 55c | 209.47$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 31c | 202.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed No | 40c | 202.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 199.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 197.16$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 195.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 185.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 170.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 169.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 53c | 166.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 163.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…136dbacked No | 24c | 162.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 151.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 151.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 66c | 150.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 53c | 150.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 149.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 46c | 143.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 33c | 137.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 136.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 130$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 127.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 68c | 126.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 120.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 119.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed No | 44c | 117$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 60c | 113.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed Yes | 64c | 102.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 99.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…69e6backed No | 54c | 98.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes | 62c | 97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 68c | 96.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 66c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 89.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 54c | 85.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 65c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…de71backed No | 54c | 84.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 48c | 83.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…aab7backed Yes | 48c | 82.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 69.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 67.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 52c | 66.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 58c | 66.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 24c | 57.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 50c | 55.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…b6e0backed Yes | 58c | 55.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 54.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 42c | 52.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 45c | 51.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 47c | 51.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 47c | 50.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 50.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 50c | 50.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 50c | 50.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 46.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 46.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 36c | 45.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 43c | 44.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d90…2512backed No | 44c | 44.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 57c | 44.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 43.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.