Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f8f98e75213f98720b7ef41b50ddcacc21affc779049f418b5802098e4edc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 36c | 1,107$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.87 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…49a7backed No | 69c | 916.66$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 815.23$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.96 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 727.77$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 71c | 681.63$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.15 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 36c | 498.44$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 42c | 485.12$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.54 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 37c | 471.07$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.24 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 20c | 443.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.83 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 355.1$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 346.18$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 341.16$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 301.3$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 281.5$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 278.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 270.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 268.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 66c | 245.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.87 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 239.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 231.28$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 39c | 228.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 42c | 213.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 34c | 206.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.78 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 35c | 201.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.18 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 188.65$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 184.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 63c | 174.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 32c | 166.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 29c | 160.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.97 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 159.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 38c | 159.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 32c | 154.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 144.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 142.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 141.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 134.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 34c | 132.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 32c | 130$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 34c | 129.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 125.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 17c | 120.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 115$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 36c | 114.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 111.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 28c | 109.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 37c | 108.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 104$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 99.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 26c | 98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 36c | 96.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 31c | 95.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 85.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 35c | 78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…b6e0backed Yes | 38c | 77.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…af56backed Yes | 40c | 76.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 35c | 74.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 74.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 39c | 72.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 72.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 64c | 69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 47c | 61.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 57.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 55.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed No | 75c | 54.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 32c | 52.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 37c | 52.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 38c | 51.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…b9e2backed Yes | 36c | 51.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 49.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Yes | 24c | 49.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed No | 71c | 49.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 72c | 49.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 40c | 48.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 48.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 37c | 48.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 46.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 51c | 45.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 61c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 46c | 43.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 42.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 73c | 42.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 35c | 41.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 41.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 36c | 41.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.