Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf202bf6b19351239c98651c71876858a04906e3a729ebaeb5427133a36ac0d93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Down | 0c | 30,416$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Down | 35c | 17,179$6,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,016.18 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687f…da05backed Down | 18c | 10,660$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6db…f4adbacked Down | 1c | 10,077$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Up | 42c | 8,114$3,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,696.29 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Up | 75c | 7,242$5,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.26 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Down | 15c | 5,434$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 38c | 4,350$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.98 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…50c9backed Down | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 52c | 3,299$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.02 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Down | 46c | 3,202$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…be4cbacked Up | 43c | 2,786$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Down | 38c | 2,101$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.28 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 44c | 1,951$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.87 | 1,294 | 24.1%312 W · 982 L | -59.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…ddaabacked Down | 32c | 1,920$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…5483backed Up | 72c | 1,679$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 52c | 1,321$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.16 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 9c | 1,285$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 207 | 24.6%51 W · 156 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Down | 3c | 1,282$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Up | 73c | 1,141$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.28 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Down | 34c | 1,067$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c76…72e3backed Up | 50c | 970.59$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…fc36backed Up | 52c | 968.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.34 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Up | 69c | 898.81$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 15c | 858.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 155 | 21.3%33 W · 122 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down | 7c | 836.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Down | 28c | 705$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.07 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Up | 52c | 674.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…fc87backed Down | 49c | 633.54$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d5…e7cabacked Down | 15c | 624.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Up | 56c | 600$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…f676backed Down | 14c | 525$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 37c | 518.31$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.59 | 311 | 38.6%120 W · 191 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…133dbacked Down | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…13b8backed Down | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Down | 17c | 483.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked Up | 65c | 465.09$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Down | 25c | 422.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…c151backed Down | 20c | 408.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…0d61backed Down | 53c | 400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Down | 57c | 400$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Down | 6c | 322.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Down | 12c | 310.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Down | 47c | 300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Up | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Down | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…0a1bbacked Down | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Up | 52c | 298.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.04 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Down | 28c | 285.15$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed Down | 31c | 255.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Down | 37c | 250$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…b6dabacked Up | 67c | 243.99$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Up | 13c | 230.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.76 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Up | 80c | 213.33$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e51abacked Down | 45c | 213.12$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1914…36f9backed Down | 56c | 209.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…765cbacked Up | 56c | 201.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Up | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…2233backed Down | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…e027backed Up | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…cc25backed Down | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Up | 43c | 181.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed Down | 43c | 180$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eeb…f025backed Down | 34c | 178.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 49c | 158.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d56…343dbacked Down | 13c | 156.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8eb…87c8backed Down | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…ee80backed Down | 43c | 135$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Up | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd658…2003backed Down | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Down | 16c | 115.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Down | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…df7cbacked Up | 59c | 109.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…8172backed Up | 53c | 107.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed Down | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4689…1926backed Up | 42c | 104$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Down | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Up | 68c | 100.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Up | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…80afbacked Down | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ba…6655backed Up | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…0ef3backed Up | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Down | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Up | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46e8…9151backed Down | 44c | 98.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e9…0d07backed Up | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…d20dbacked Up | 54c | 90.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Down | 49c | 90.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Up | 51c | 90.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…81f3backed Down | 40c | 90.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Down | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Down | 43c | 87.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x484e…df42backed Up | 57c | 79.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…75aebacked Up | 46c | 75.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Up | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…826bbacked Down | 28c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…4404backed Down | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…8634backed Down | 47c | 56.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.