Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad67570018e673aabd1bbaa0bc40c4341191fb83690220b99fba6d544d767f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 31c | 904.14$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.61 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 778.4$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 531.38$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 481$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 39c | 480.02$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 456$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 27c | 446.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…566ebacked Yes | 42c | 399.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 47c | 375.13$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 25c | 329.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 76c | 303.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 288.18$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 41c | 281.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 259.04$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked No | 68c | 256.87$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 34c | 256.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 249.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 246.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 239.94$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 238.62$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 235.88$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 19c | 217.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…6d42backed Yes | 41c | 210.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 33c | 208.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…6cfebacked Yes | 43c | 192.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 56c | 187.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 173.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 169.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 168.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 68c | 163.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 42c | 157.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 40c | 153.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 37c | 147$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…64ebbacked Yes | 37c | 140.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 127.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 36c | 126.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 32c | 124.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 121.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 121.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 119.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 117.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked Yes | 43c | 116.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 115.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 111.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 110.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 38c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 107.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 44c | 103.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed No | 60c | 102.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 100.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…c129backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 93.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 27c | 91.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 33c | 91.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 38c | 90.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…d1b6backed Yes | 33c | 90.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 89.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 33c | 89.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 56c | 89.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes | 37c | 87.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 43c | 83.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 79.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3963…6c32backed Yes | 35c | 79.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 38c | 74.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 71.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 70.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 72c | 70.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…f354backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…2fc2backed Yes | 43c | 69.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 68.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…c123backed Yes | 39c | 65.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 63c | 65.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 72c | 64.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 38c | 58.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 58.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 58.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 36c | 55.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 55.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 54.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…d937backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 43c | 52.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 63c | 52.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 72c | 50.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…e027backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336c…9e25backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.